The New York Rangers went on a run to the Eastern Conference Final last season, a year after a controversial GM change altered the trajectory of the club. Was their 21/22 success a flash in the pan or should we expect the Rangers among the Eastern Conference’s top teams again in 22/23?
2021-2022 Season Performance
Regular Season
The Rangers found success starting fairly early in the 21/22 season. It was fair to wonder if it was a façade, since the Rangers were well below break even in xGF% on most nights. Igor Shesterkin’s season long goaltending clinic and a lethal powerplay helped mask their struggles at 5v5 and held them solidly in playoff position all season. Their 5v5 play improved following the trade deadline, but it was unclear if they would be able to carry that into the postseason.
Igor Shesterkin was the big story all season, holding the fort for his team until they were able to capitalize on their own opportunities. Chris Kreider supplied plenty of such offense, setting a new franchise record for powerplay goals in a season. Deadline acquisitions Andrew Copp, Frank Vatrano, and Tyler Motte provided a much needed boost to forward depth that helped to stabilize the Rangers 5v5 play down the stretch.
Playoffs
The Rangers regular season personality carried over into the playoffs, where they met the Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round. The Penguins dominated 5v5 play in the 7 game series and it was the powerplay and goaltending that eked out a series victory for the Rangers. The second and third rounds were much the same, with the Carolina Hurricanes and Tampa Bay Lightning as opponents. The Blueshirts outlasted the Canes but fell to the Bolts in the Eastern Conference Final. In the end, even strength defense was a huge liability in the playoffs that the Rangers would be wise to address.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Offseason Moves
With little breathing room under the cap, the Rangers dealt RFA Alexandar Georgiev to the Colorado Avalanche at the draft. They brought in veteran Jaroslav Halak on a low cost deal to fill the void. The 37 year old is still a competent backup and should give the Rangers a reliable option to give Shesterkin regular nights off.
The Rangers had few pending UFAs last season, so most of the notable free agent departures were their trade deadline acquisitions Andrew Copp, Frank Vatrano, Tyler Motte and Justin Braun. Ryan Strome also departed the Big Apple, leaving a hole in the top six.
Vincent Trocheck signed a 7 year deal with the Rangers on the first day of free agency, as they looked for a replacement for Ryan Strome. At age 28, there is risk with the long term deal and his projection for next season is only a middle six forward. Aside from adding Trocheck, most of the Rangers most notable signings were extensions with their RFA crop including Kaapo Kakko, Julien Gauthier, Libor Hajek, and Sammy Blais.
According to CapFriendly, the Rangers have 21 players on the roster and only about $1M in remaining cap space at this juncture of the offseason so it seems likely that the current roster closely resembles the one we’ll see opening night.
22/23 Roster
The Rangers enter the season with a rather underwhelming roster profile considering their trip to the Eastern Conference Final last season. They look likely to struggle at 5v5 again this season, with an average rated defense and sputtering offense.
There is reason for hope, though, as the foundation that the Rangers success was built on last season remain. Igor Shesterkin is good enough to steal more than his share of games again this season. The model also doesn’t give credit for a powerplay that was much better offensively than the team was at 5v5. If the Rangers continue to light the lamp with the man advantage like they did last season, there is potential to outperform the model projection.
Metropolitan Division Landscape
The Metropolitan is by far the tightest division in the current projections for 22/23. Top to bottom, there is only a 10 point gap in the division and the playoff teams may be decided by a bit of good or bad luck. The Penguins, Capital, and Hurricanes all look like legitimate payoff teams once again. The Devils look like a dark horse to win the division. The Blue Jackets landed the biggest free agent on the market in Johnny Gaudreau. And we’re still waiting to find out what the Islanders have done because, well, Lou Lamoriello. The Rangers sit at the bottom of the heap, but it’s so tight that injuries or a bit of puck luck could alter the division landscape in a hurry.
Long Term Outlook
For a team just emerging from a rebuild, the Rangers long term outlook paints a surprising picture. Among players under longer term deals, the forward group is past their prime particularly in the top six. Growth of the kids like Kaapo Kakko, Alex Lafreniere, and Filip Chytil will help offset age related decline from the vets, but the Rangers will need find other ways to improve the group if they hope for more than just standing pat. The defense is in better shape, with a younger group manning the blueline and Shesterkin will likely be manning the crease for the foreseeable future.
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Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
