The landscape has changed since my initial look at the Metropolitan Division during the 2022 offseason. With the entry draft in the rearview mirror, which teams have made early offseason moves to change the division outlook. Below, we’ll take a look at how each team’s outlook for the 2022-2023 season has change between my initial offseason snapshot and the end of the NHL entry draft.
For the analysis below, we’ll make a few key assumptions. First, we’ll assume that all RFAs will return to their current clubs. Their impact is included in the team projections, however no cap hit is included in the team totals. Obviously, some of each team’s cap space will be required to resign their RFAs so we’ll make note of potential cap headaches where applicable. Second, all UFAs are removed from the rosters. Any resulting holes in the roster have been filled with replacement level players.
Metropolitan Division Projected Standings
The projected division standings were tight from top to bottom in the initial snapshot. Since then, the Penguins have separated themselves at the top and the Rangers have separated themselves at the bottom, both due to goaltending roster moves. The middle is as tight as ever.
Let’s take a closer look in order of the projected standings. I’ve included the current roster profiles alongside the ones from the previous snapshot for comparison.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Change in Projected Standings Points: +8
Change in Division Rank: +2
The Penguins had some high profile free agents this offseason and they extended a couple of pending UFAs since the last update to move them up the projected standings. First, they re-signed Casey DeSmith to fill out their goaltending tandem. Next, they brought back Kris Letang on a 6 year deal to improve their defense corps. While the deal for Letang may look much different 6 years from now, his value in year 1 is projected to be high.
The Penguins still have cap space after the pair of signings, with just $65.7M committed to 16 players for next season.
Carolina Hurricanes
Change in Projected Standings Points: -2
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Hurricanes moved out Tony DeAngelo during the draft, so he either wore out his welcome or the Hurricanes were simply not prepared to pay his asking price as an RFA. It’s the only notable move by the Hurricanes since the initial snapshot. They have about $20M in cap space available as free agency approaches with Martin Necas, Steven Lorentz, and Ethan Bear the RFAs included on the roster profile that are in need of new deals.
New Jersey Devils
Change in Projected Standings Points: +3
Change in Division Rank: +1
The Devils’ Achilles heal last season was goaltending and they made a draft day trade to change their look in net. Vitek Vanecek comes over from Washington and looks like the number one goalie in New Jersey based on projected impact from the model. The Devils now have RFA Vanecek alongside Jonathan Bernier and Mackenzie Blackwood under contract so there could be further developments before the offseason is complete.
The Devils have nearly $30M in cap space available as they head to free agency and could position themselves as a new challenger in the Metropolitan by the time the free agent frenzy dust settles.
Washington Capitals
Change in Projected Standings Points: -2
Change in Division Rank: -2
The only notable move made by the Capitals since the last snapshot was the trade sending Vanecek to the Devils. It costs the Caps a couple of projected standings points for now, while the backup goaltender position sits open.
Philadelphia Flyers
Change in Projected Standings Points: +4
Change in Division Rank: +3
The Flyers had less than $10M in cap space to work with this offseason, which makes their acquisition of Tony DeAngelo interesting. DeAngelo becomes the top defenseman on the Flyers roster by a considerable margin, however is in need of a new contract as an RFA.
Assuming the Flyers extend DeAngelo, they won’t have much cap space left to fill out the rest of their roster. It doesn’t look likely that they’ll be able to break into the top half of the division projections.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Change in Projected Standings Points: +0
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Blue Jackets NHL roster hasn’t seen any changes since the initial snapshot but they did sign Adam Boqvist to an extension. It looks like a high value deal that starts the Blue Jackets’ offseason on the right foot.
New York Islanders
Change in Projected Standings Points: +2
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Islanders acquired Alex Romanov from the Canadiens during the draft as they start to fill the holes in their defense corps. Romanov is an RFA, so their cap situation is essentially unchanged since the initial snapshot with roughly $10M to spend and 19 players already under contract.
New York Rangers
Change in Projected Standings Points: -7
Change in Division Rank: -1
The Rangers most notable move since the initial snapshot was sending backup goaltender Alexandar Georgiev to the Avalanche. Their roster strength takes a temporary hit as a result as they look at filling the now open backup role.
More
Want to peruse the player projections behind the team profiles or browse UFA player cards for the addition your favorite team needs? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection cards. Plots will be updated through the offseason as the 22/23 rosters take shape and updated to track progress through the season so you can follow along with the changing landscape.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
