The New Jersey Devils 2021-2022 season is probably best described as a disappointment. After making a big splash during 2021 free agency to add Dougie Hamilton, Tomas Tatar, and Jonathan Bernier, the Devils were widely thought to have been one of the big winners of the offseason. The season didn’t pan out nearly as well and New Jersey failed to make the playoffs. What was behind the team’s struggles last season? Is the future brighter? Let’s take a look.
2021-2022 Season Performance
The entire Metropolitan Division got off to a hot start to the season and the Devils were no exception. They went 7-3-2 through their first 12 games and were in the thick of things early. They fell off the pace over the next 20 games, though, and they finished just ahead of the Philadelphia Flyers in the division cellar.
When we start to look below the surface, we quickly find that the Devil’s were not nearly as bad as their record might suggest. They had an expected goal share over 50% at 5v5, which would generally allow a team to be competitive. Their finishing was okay, converting 5v5 expected goals to actual goals at an even clip. Goaltending was the elephant in the room that cratered their season. The Devils allowed more than 0.7 goals above expected at 5v5, leading to one of the worst 5v5 GA/60 in the NHL.
Special teams were not a big strength for the Devils this season. They weren’t a big weakness either. Both their 5v4 powerplay and 4v5 penalty kill had very average results over the course of the full season.
Goaltending Woes
UFA signing Jonathan Bernier got off to a decent start in net for the Devils, however only played 10 games before an injury ended his season. The Devils had another 6 goaltenders man the crease over the course of the season as they looked for a suitable replacement. None of them were able to grab ahold of the opportunity and the Devils were left still searching for answers at the end of the season.
Youth Movement
The Devils rebuild showed plenty of promise this season, as their young stars led the team in scoring. Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes, and Nico Hischier finished 1, 2, 3 in team 5v5 P/60. There may have been an element of good puck luck as all three shot around 13% at 5v5. That’s on the high side for forwards, although not egregiously, so it wasn’t as if their success was powered solely by shooting luck. Considering Bratt is the elder-statesman of the trio at age 23 and that the Devils had additional contributions from other youngsters, like rookie Dawson Mercer, the future of the Devils forward corps looks bright.
Looking Ahead to 2022-2023
Looking ahead to next season, we’ll assume that all RFAs return to assess projected roster strength. With the pending UFAs removed from the roster and the resulting gaps filled with replacement level players, the Devils look like a borderline playoff team next season based on their projected point percentage.
Goaltending is the weak link for the Devils as they look ahead to 22/23, which isn’t a surprise now that we’ve dug into their 21/22 results. The return of a healthy Jonathan Bernier certainly helps, but adding a true #1 goalie would make a big difference. The roster is near average in all other categories, so a balanced approach to improving the roster appears to be in order.
The Devils have 16 returning NHLers under contract for next season, with corresponding cap hit sitting under $60M. With roughly $25M to re-sign RFAs and upgrade the roster, New Jersey certainly has the flexibility to make some improvements. Re-signing RFA Jesper Bratt will take a chunk out of that cap space, but the rest of the Devils RFA crop isn’t likely to command large cap hits and should leave some flexibility for the Devils to add a few impact players.
Focus on Goaltending
Yes, we’re talking about goaltending again. It was the Devils Achilles heel in 21/22 and addressing the deficiency before the puck drops on the 22/23 season could improve their projection dramatically. Jonathan Bernier’s projection suggests he’s a very capable backup, but not quite a #1 starter. Mackenzie Blackwood, now 25, is looking more and more like a bust.
Metropolitan Division Landscape
The Metropolitan Division projections for next season are fairly tightly clustered, much like they were at the beginning of last season. The Carolina Hurricanes, Washington Capitals, and Pittsburgh Penguins are the early favorites for the three automatic divisional playoff berths.
The Devils sit closely behind the division leaders and have more flexibility this offseason than the teams ahead. The Penguins have a similar amount of cap space as the Devils, but things are much tighter for both the Hurricanes and Capitals and they’ll have a more difficult time improving their roster through the summer. The door is open for the Devils to become a factor in the division with a good offseason.
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Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
