The NHL entry draft is just over a month away. With it comes the possibility that we’ll see some significant trades. I’ll be checking in on some of the trades from the 2021 deadline before then. Today’s subject: the Florida Panthers and Buffalo Sabres deal that sent Sam Reinhart to Florida.
The Trade
Date: July 24, 2021
To Florida Panthers:
- Sam Reinhart
To Buffalo Sabres:
- Devon Levi
- 2022 1st Round Pick (conditional)
Initial Assessment:
Florida Panthers
Reinhart was projected to have a second line impact heading into the 21/22 season, with a projected value of approximately $4M. He was an unsigned RFA at the time of the trade, and the Panthers subsequently signed him to a 3 year deal with a $6.5M cap hit.
Buffalo Sabres
Devon Levi was projected to have a 14% chance of becoming a regular NHL goaltender by Hockey Prospecting at the time of the trade, giving him a fairly negligible value in the deal. The first round pick was more valuable but, with Florida generally expected to be a strong team, it was reasonable to expect a late 1st round pick.
2021-2022 Performance
Florida Panthers
Reinhart was a key player during his tenure in Buffalo, but fell further down the depth chart when he moved to the Sunshine State. No longer responsible to drive the team’s offense, he excelled in a supporting role. His offensive production took off as the Panthers’ second line was able to feast as the top line drew opponents preferred matchups. His on-ice shooting percentage was over 10% at 5v5, which suggests some regression to on-ice offensive impacts may be due but his individual goal production looks sustainable.
Buffalo Sabres
Devon Levi played for Northeastern University for the 21/22 season, where he put up a 0.952 save percentage in 32 games. It was enough to bump his NHLer probability in the Hockey Prospecting model to 21%.
The first round pick sent to Buffalo in the trade was top 10 protected. With the Panthers winning the President’s trophy, then bowing out in the second round of the playoffs, the pick will be the 28th overall selection in the 2022 draft.
2022-2023 Projections
Florida Panthers
Reinhart’s strong 21/22 season gave his projected impact a significant bump heading into the 22/23 season. Most signs point to his success in 21/22 being tied to his move into a supporting role and there are few signs of large influences from puck luck. While his projected value is still below his cap hit, the gap is much smaller than it was a year ago.
Buffalo Sabres
Levi doesn’t look likely to make the jump to the NHL next season and the 28th overall pick is unlikely to add an NHL ready player. The Sabres continue to hold only future value from the trade.
The Verdict
This trade looked like a win for the Panthers at the time of the deal, although the $6.5M cap hit that Florida committed to eroded some value with a roughly $2.5M opportunity cost. After Reinhart’s strong first season in Florida and a jump in his projected value heading into the 22/23 season, it looks like a bigger win now. Levi’s NHLer probability improved marginally but the Panthers’ President’s Trophy winning season made the 2022 first round pick a late one.
Want to check out more of projections for the 22/23 season? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection plots and peruse the full set of free agent player cards.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
