With a little over a month until 2022 free agency, I’m adding a new wrinkle to the free agent check-in series and looking at some pending UFAs. I’ll take an in depth look at at some of the pending free agents along with their recent performance future projections. I’m starting with the biggest fish in the 2022 pending free agent pool: Johnny Gaudreau.
Previous Contract
- Signed: October 10, 2016
- Signed by: Calgary Flames
- Length: 6 years
- Cap Hit: $6.75M
- Clause: M-NTC (5 team trade list) in year 6.
Projected Value: 21/22 Season
Heading into the final year in his six year deal in Calgary, Gaudreau’s projected impact for the 21/22 season was a top line forward. It gave him a projected value just under his cap hit of $6.75M.
2021-2022 Performance
Gaudreau put together a fantastic campaign in the 21/22 season, putting up 40 goals and 115 points in all situations. He had 90 even strength points; the most by an NHL player in roughly 3 decades. His 5v5 offensive production greatly exceeded projections, helped by some percentage luck. His 5v5 shooting percentage was 15.76%, the second highest of his career. It may be due for some regression next season, although Gaudreau’s 5v5 shooting percentage has been consistently around 12% throughout his career. An on-ice shooting percentage over 13% at 5v5 is likely also due for some regression next season.
Gaudreau put up his impressive offensive numbers while playing the strong 2-way game demanded by Darryl Sutter. His 5v5 xGA/60 was below the 25th percentile for NHL forwards and, along with Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk, Calgary’s top line dominated at 5v5 this season.
The Flames advanced to the playoffs, where they defeated the Dallas Stars in 7 games before falling to the rival Edmonton Oilers in round 2. Gaudreau led the Flames in points with 14 and even strength points with 12 during the 12 game playoff run.
2022-2023 Projections
The model looks at the previous three seasons, so his offensive outburst from the 21/22 season is tempered by a couple of less productive season prior. Gaudreau’s projected impact for the 22/23 season is still an elite top line forward. He’s projected to be one of the NHL’s best 5v5 producers, while limiting damage against.
The Verdict
Gaudreau is one of the top players in the NHL. The Flames will almost certainly do everything in their power to bring him back to Calgary and he will have plenty of suitors if he does decide to test the market. His 21/22 season looks like a blip, but he’s still projected to be one of the best forwards in the league next season. The bigger question mark is his age. At 28, Gaudreau is later in his prime and some age related decline should be expected if he signs a long term deal. He’s the top free agent forward among this year’s class, though, and players of his ilk are not available very often. Gaudreau is going to get paid and it will be a big win for the team that signs him.
Want to check out more of this year’s pending free agents? Sign up for an annual membership to get access to all 22/23 team and player projection plots and peruse the full set of free agent player cards.
Input data for models from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
