In the FA signing series, we take an in depth look at a deal signed by a restricted or unrestricted free agent along with their performance since the deal and future projections. Today’s subject: Taylor Hall and the Boston Bruins.
The Contract
Date: July 23, 2021
Signed by Boston Bruins:
- Taylor Hall (age 29): 4 year, $6M cap hit, NMC, M-NTC in Years 2-4)
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
Hall was projected to have a top line forward impact in the 21/22 season, highlighted by strong playmaking and defensive impacts. The projected impact was strong enough that his projected value for the 21/22 season was above his cap hit. At age 29, Hall is at the tail end of his prime and it would be reasonable to expect a drop in performance through the four year deal. It’s not a terribly long deal though, and his projected value only drops slightly below his cap hit in the final year of the deal. At the outset, this looks like a very reasonable deal to keep a star player on the roster.
2021-2022 Performance
Hall was an impact player for the Bruins throughout the 21/22 season. Playing in 81 games, he outperformed his projected impact, with higher assist totals leading the way. He had a strong defensive impact to go along with his offensive output and there aren’t any big red flags like shooting percentage that suggest puck luck had a large influence on this year’s numbers.
One interesting observation is that Hall’s 5v5 minutes were below the projection significantly. He wasn’t expected to be the offensive engine in Boston this season, fitting in a more complementary top 6 role. It seems to have worked out well for Hall and the Bruins and may be the main reason for Hall’s offensive production exceeding the projection.
Hall continued to produce for the Bruins in the postseason. He put up 2 goals and 2 assists (1G, 1A at 5v5) in Boston’s first round series against Carolina.
2022-2023 Projections
Hall is nearing the end of his prime and it’s likely we’ll start to see some age related decline over the next few seasons. He remains a star player in the NHL, however, and his projection for 22/23 is still a top line forward impact.
Hall’s projected value at the time of the deal suggested that his value would exceed his cap hit until the final year of the contract. With a drop in projected value based on the 22/23 model, that is no longer the case. It’s a worrisome development for the Bruins. Hall will need a solid outing next season to avoid declining faster than the generic age curves for a second consecutive season.
The Verdict
After a full season with the Bruins, Hall’s contract is a toss up. It looked like a reasonable deal when it was signed and Hall performed well in his first season in Boston. Yet the model for 22/23 projects a declining impact that could be a sign of things to come as Hall enters his 30’s. Hall’s projected impact is still strong for next season though, and another strong season in Boston could turn the tide. A lot may depend on Patrice Bergeron’s future and how the Bruins respond. If Hall is asked to carry more of the load, we’ll see if he is able to maintain his impact in the face of tougher assignments.
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