In the FA signing series, we take an in depth look at a deal signed by a restricted or unrestricted free agent along with their performance since the deal and future projections. Today’s subject: Jack Hughes and the New Jersey Devils.
The Contract
Date: November 30, 2021
Signed by New Jersey Devils:
- Jack Hughes (age 20): 8 years, $8.0M cap hit, UFA at expiry
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
The Devils jumped on the the trend to sign players with star potential to big contracts following their ELC, locking up their young talent into their prime years. With only two shortened season of NHL experience under his belt, Hughes career high heading into the 21/22 season was 31 points in 56 games in 2020/2021. It leads to a projected value much lower than his new cap hit when it kicks in in 22/23 based on the model projection for 21/22 and generic age curves. It’s worth noting that prospect models generally still thought very highly of Hughes, however, and it may be a case where generic age curves don’t capture his future value well.
2021-2022 Performance
The prospect models may have been on to something, as Hughes arrived in the NHL offensively in 21/22. He put up a 5v5 G/60 that sits among the best in the NHL while shooting 13.01% at 5v5. It’s on the high side, although egregiously so, particularly for a forward with higher end shooting talent. His playmaking also provided much improved results relative to the projections, with 5v5 strong 5v5 assist rates as well. He wasn’t sheltered either. He put up these strong results while playing big minutes on the top line.
The big question is whether Hughes breakout season was a flash in the pan or the start of a trend. When we look at his career history, it’s clear that this season was a breakout year for him. The projections for next season are lower as the model tends to temper single season extremes, but it still shows an overall upward trend.
2022-2023 Projections
With a breakout season on the books, Hughes projection heading into the 22/23 season took a big jump from a year prior. He appears to be outperforming the generic age curves in his development and heads into the 22/23 season projected as a 2nd line forward. There is plenty of reason for optimism that Hughes can once again outperform the projection.
While the 22/23 season projection and generic age curves suggest that Hughes cap hit is too high for his impact, we’ve seen signs that he is outperforming the age curves in his development. At age 21 Hughes still has a few years where we could see significant development and his history so far suggests he is likely to continue to do so. The 22/23 season will be a key one to see if can continue to establish himself as one of the NHL’s elite players.
The Verdict
As the final year of Hughes’ ELC comes to a close and his 8 year extension is set to kick-in, it’s much too early to hand down a verdict on this contract. Hughes had a breakout season offensively in 21/22 and appears to be developing at a much higher rate than the generic age curves. He is not projected to be worth his cap his going into year one of the deal, but there are plenty of signs that he could get there over the remaining seven seasons. With the Devils looking to climb out of a rebuild, it looks like they may have a key piece locked up for a potential contention window.
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