In the trade check-in series, we take an in depth look at a deal by assessing the value of the trade at the time it was made along with performance updates since the deal and future projections. Today’s subject: the Carolina Hurricanes and Edmonton Oilers one-for-one deal involving Ethan Bear and Warren Foegele.
The Trade
Date: July 28, 2021
To Carolina Hurricanes:
- Ethan Bear (1 year remaining @ $2M cap hit, RFA on expiry, age 24)
To Edmonton Oilers:
- Warren Foegele (RFA, age 25)
Previous Check-ins
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
I’ve refined my player valuation techniques substantially since the original check-in, so let’s take a more in depth look at the trade before we get into 21/22 regular season performance. We noted in the initial check-in that Bear’s cap hit was a big factor in the Hurricanes getting the most out of this trade and we can see it here. With Foegele an RFA at the time of the trade and Bear an RFA after the 21/22 season, their future values are close based on their projected impacts. Yet with Bear’s cap hit sitting well below his projected value for the 21/22 season, the Canes gain some valuable cap space.
The Oilers followed up the trade by signing Foegele to a 3 year deal, which we noted in the November 2021 check-in was near his value.
2021-2022 Performance
Bear got off to a strong start in Carolina, as we saw in the earlier check-in. He wasn’t able to sustain his early success. His offensive output slowed, although it remained slightly better than projected over the course of the full regular season. The bigger concern was a drop in his defensive impact. With his drop in performance appearing to coincide with an absence due to a bought with covid, the question remains if it will sustain as a long term trend.
In our first check-in, Foegele appeared to be as advertised to start his Oiler’s tenure although his defensive metrics needed to see improvement. With a full season under his belt in Edmonton, we saw improvement in his defensive metrics and offensive output remaining steady. A lower than projected 5v5 goal rate seems to have hurt his overall actual impact. He shot 7.23% at 5v5 this season, which is his lowest mark since his rookie year, so there is hope for a small bounce back next season.
2022-2023 Projections
The model likes Bear’s chances of having a stronger season defensively next year and he’s capable of contributing offensively as well. He projects as a 2nd pair defenseman next season and will be an RFA this offseason.
Foegele should provide the Oilers with a defensively responsible winger next season who is capable of chipping in offensively as well. His projection is a borderline 2nd/3rd line forward. Finding him a spot on the third line may be the way to get the most value from Foegele and he should be an option to move up as needed through the season.
The Verdict
This deal looked like a win for the Hurricanes out of the gate, mainly due to Bear’s cap hit versus his projected impact for the 21/22 season. With both players performing roughly as advertised through the 21/22 regular season and their projected values remaining similar for the 22/23 season, there doesn’t seem to be a reason to change that verdict yet.
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