In the FA signing series, we take an in depth look at a deal signed by a restricted or unrestricted free agent along with their performance since the deal and future projections. Today’s subject: Patrik Laine and the Columbus Blue Jackets.
The Contract
Date: July 28, 2021
Signed by Columbus Blue Jackets:
- Patrik Laine (age 23): 1 year, $7.5M cap hit, RFA at expiry
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
Laine was an RFA in the 2021 offseason. Coming off a disappointing 20/21 season, the Blue Jackets signed him to a one year deal with a cap hit of $7.5M. With his projected value coming in at just over $2M, the opportunity cost was high as the Jackets tied up an extra $5M to sign Laine. With the one year deal leaving Laine as an RFA again in the summer of 2022, it was clearly a ‘show me’ type deal.
2021-2022 Performance
Laine has bounced back offensively this season after a sub-par year in 20/21. A goal scorer since he entered the league, his 5v5 G/60 is back in the top quartile among NHL forwards. His assist rates are well up relative to projections as well. Based on his offensive output, we’d expect his actual value to be greatly exceeding his projected value. However, defense has impacted his value in the opposite direction. With a 5v5 on-ice xGA/60 that is among the worst in the league, his actual value sits under $3M this season.
2022-2023 Projections
While the 22/23 season projections are still preliminary without the full 21/22 regular season data, there’s enough data to give us a reasonable picture of what we can expect next season. Laine is once again projected to have strong projected impact next season, along with one of the worst defensive impacts in the league. Combined, it limits his projected value and he looks like a bottom six offensive specialist.
The Verdict
For the 21/22 season, the one-year deal looks like a loss for the Blue Jackets as Laine failed to perform anywhere near the level of his cap hit. However, considering Columbus kept it to a one year deal and retained RFA rights for the 2022 offseason, it may be a win in the long run depending how the Blue Jackets handle Laine this summer.
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