In the FA signing series, we take an in depth look at a deal signed by a restricted or unrestricted free agent along with their performance since the deal and future projections. Today’s subject: Andrei Svechnikov and the Carolina Hurricanes.
The Contract
Date: Aug 26, 2021
Signed by Carolina Hurricanes:
- Andrei Svechnikov (age 21): 8 years, $7.75M cap hit, UFA at expiry
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
Svechnikov was an RFA in the 2021 offseason. Coming off his ELC, he signed an 8 year extension with the Hurricanes. It follows a trend of teams signing younger players to long term deals as they look to lock up their stars through their prime years. At just 21 years of age, Svechnikov still has plenty of time for further development before he enters his prime and the cap hit reflects that. At $7.75M, it comes in very high based on his projected impact for the 21/22 season. The key to this deal will be Svechnikov’s long term development though as continued growth will drive his value up in future seasons.
2021-2022 Performance
The Hurricanes have enjoyed an excellent season and sit first in the Metropolitan with the postseason now just two weeks away. Svechnikov has enjoyed similar success. His offensive output has greatly exceeded projections, particularly his primary assists. While his past performance predicted primarily goal scoring impact, he’s found a strong balance with improved playmaking this season as well. Defensively, his impact has been worse than projected which has prevented his actual value from seeing the full bump that his offensive output might suggest. All in, though, his actual value sits roughly $1M above his projected value which is a great sign for the long term.
2022-2023 Projections
While the 22/23 season projections are still preliminary without the full 21/22 regular season data, there’s enough data to give us a reasonable picture of what we can expect next season. With Svechnikov’s strong season added to the models, his projected impact for the 22/23 season is a top line forward with a projected value of roughly $5M. It’s still below his cap hit, but he appears to be outperforming the age curves and is closing the gap more quickly.
The Verdict
Svechnikov is undoubtedly an impact player in the NHL. The questions about this contract stem from the 21 year old signing an 8 year deal with a large cap hit. While his impact in year 1 was far less than his cap hit, this was clearly a long term play by the Hurricanes as they locked up their star into his prime years. With Svechnikov putting together a strong season in 21/22 and looking like he’s developing at a good rate, there is a strong case be made this this deal will work out well for the Hurricanes.
With seven seasons left on this deal, there’s plenty of time for it to evolve and we’ll have to check back to give it a final verdict. Subscribe to get future check-ins on free agent signings and trades, along with other updates from around the NHL.
