In the FA signing series, we take an in depth look at a deal signed by a restricted or unrestricted free agent along with their performance since the deal and future projections. Today’s subject: Kevin Fiala and the Minnesota Wild.
The Contract
Date: Aug 16, 2021
Signed by Minnesota Wild:
- Kevin Fiala (age 25): 1 year, $5.1M cap hit, RFA at expiry
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
Fiala was a restricted free agent with arbitration rights in the 2021 offseason. Things seemed to be headed that direction, until Fiala and the Wild agreed to a one year deal on the eve of the arbitration hearing.
Fiala’s projected impact for the 21/22 season was a top line forward, with a projected player impact value of $4.8M. With the one year deal landing at a cap hit of $5.1M, it’s in a range where it’s comparable with players of similar impact around the league. With recent deals tending to come with lower cap hits, however, it certainly wasn’t a bargain as we see the market value curve trending well below the overall value curve.
There is one additional bit of context we should consider here. With the one year deal, the future value is entirely in cap space. In theory, that cap space is available to either re-sign Fiala or add an equivalent player in free agency. However, due to the Wild’s buyouts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise earlier in the 2021 offseason, Minnesota’s dead cap will jump from $6.7M in 21/22 to $12.7M in 22/23 and it goes up further to $14.7M for the two seasons after that. We should look at all of Minnesota’s pending free agents with the dead cap situation in mind. The important point is that the full $5.1M is not available for adding player(s) at the end of Fiala’s current deal.
2021-2022 Performance
Fiala bet on himself with a one year deal and he’s stated his case for a longer deal (and higher cap hit) next season. His offensive output has exceeded projections substantially this season while his defensive impact has remained sound. His actual value has been over $9M based on a strong two-way performance this season.
2022-2023 Projections
While the 22/23 season projections are still preliminary without the full 21/22 regular season data, there’s enough data to give us a reasonable picture of what we can expect next season. The preliminary projections for Fiala next season is once again a top line forward, with a projected value of roughly $6M.
The Verdict
The one year deal between Fiala and the Wild looks like a win for Fiala. He bet on himself and he’s put together a strong season as he gets set for restricted free agency again in the 2022 offseason. It’s a win for the Wild as well, as they kept Fiala for the 2021 season at a reasonable cap hit, which he has outperformed as they look to make a long playoff run this spring.
While this deal looks like a win for both sides, the plot also thickens as the 2022 offseason approaches. Will the Wild be able to retain RFA Fiala once again this summer as their buyout cap penalties loom large? Subscribe to get future check-ins on free agent signings and trades, along with other updates from around the NHL.
