The Florida Panthers were the first team to clinch their spot in the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs on Sunday. Today, we’ll take a closer look at the Panthers roster to gain some insight into how they’ve built contender.
Postseason Roster Profile
We’ll start with a look at the Panthers roster profile as they barrel toward the 2022 postseason. This plot uses the current season ending player projections, incorporating this season’s results to get a look at how the Panthers’ roster stacks up relative tot he other 31 teams. Offense is the Panthers’ biggest weapon, where they rank as the best in the NHL at both even strength and on the powerplay. Their forward depth is a major factor in that success, as their bottom six forwards are also ranked as the best in the league. That depth has resulted in a relentless attack that opposing teams have had difficulty containing.
Current Season Performance
When we look at the Panthers team level key metrics, their offensive prowess jumps out again. In this plot, we’re using the season opening player projections to see how the Panthers success stacks up against the model predictions. It took the Panthers 69 games to clinch a playoff berth and they’ve led the Atlantic Division throughout most of the season. Their offensive metrics are the best in the NHL and sit well above the projections. Defensively, they’ve been worse than projected (although still in the top half of the league) but goaltending has more than made up the difference with their 5v5 GA/60 coming in below projections despite the higher xGA/60.
Roster Construction
How did the Panthers put together a roster that has found a high level of success this season? We’ll attempt to answer that question by looking at their roster from two angles: first, from the context of the salary cap to see where the Panthers found value while building their roster and, second, from the context of actual performance versus projected performance to see where players have provided additional value relative to the projections. We’ll be using the season opening player projections for all of this since it is reflective of the information available last offseason when the Panthers were putting the 21/22 version of their roster together.
Projected Value Versus Cap Hit
When we look at the roster the Panthers have assembled, it’s clear that they have very few ‘bad’ contracts where the projected value is less than the cap hit. Sergei Bobrovsky is the big exception and had a poor projection based on the his previous three seasons. Aside from Bobrovsky, Aaron Ekblad, and Sam Reinhart, the Panthers players were expected to provide value roughly equal to their cap hit or better. There are some standouts with excellent value, such as Anthony Duclair and Carter Verhaeghe who the Panthers signed to excellent deals as well as Anton Lundell who is on his entry-level contract.
When we put the Panthers contracts in context with the full suite of NHL contracts, their spending efficiency becomes even more clear. From these plots, it’s abundantly clear that they have found players with good value contracts for forward depth and defense and managed to sign their star forwards to contracts with value near the league average.
Performance Relative to Projections
While the vast majority of the roster was projected to provide value exceeding their cap hit, reality doesn’t always follow the projections. Let’s take a look at performance relative to projections to see how the Panthers players have performed relative to expectations at the start of the season.
The Panthers have been a well oiled machine for most of the season and the whole has been greater than the sum of the parts. Individually, the Panthers have performed near or above their projections. Mackenzie Weegar and Radko Gudas and Joe Thornton are performing the farthest below their projections. If we look back to the projected value vs cap hit plots, though, we see all three were projected to provide significantly greater value than their cap hits. Performing below projections has simply put them closer in line with their cap hit from an actual value perspective.
The other thing that’s clear is that the forward group is generally outperforming their projections. Mason Marchment is a major outlier, leading the NHL in actual value at this point of the season. It’s a reflection of the Panthers’ forward depth, as Marchment has feasted on lower quality competition while the top six produces against opposing teams’ top players.
Cup Contender
The Panthers have become one of the leading Stanley Cup contenders this season. They’ve done it through careful roster building, retaining and adding players with strong projected value relative to their cap hits. They’ve become even stronger with excellent seasons from their players as a whole, with most players outperforming their projected value.
