In the FA signing series, we take an in depth look at a deal signed by a restricted or unrestricted free agent along with their performance since the deal and future projections. Today’s subject: Evan Rodrigues and the Pittsburgh Penguins.
The Contract
Date: July 28, 2021
Signed by Pittsburgh Penguins:
- Evan Rodrigues (age 27): 1 year, $1.0M cap hit, UFA at expiry
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
Evan Rodrigues was an unrestricted free agent in the 2021 offseason after his prior one year deal with the Penguins expired. The Penguins brought him back for another season on a one year contract with a cap hit of $1.0M.
Rodrigues is an established depth player and his projected impact entering the 21/22 season was a third line forward with a projected value of $2.9M. We see on the value curve plots that Rodrigues was among the players with the highest projected impacts for players signed at or near the league minimum of $750k. His $1M cap hit looks like a bargain for the Penguins and leaves the nearly $2M in extra cap space relative to Rodrigues value that they can spend elsewhere.
2021-2022 Performance
Rodrigues has come slightly better than advertised this season in comparison to his projected impacts. His defensive impact has been solid, where he sits below the 25th percentile in 5v5 on-ice xGA/60. He’s chipped in offensively as well and was a key player early in the season when the Penguins dealt with multiple injuries and Covid related absences.
2022-2023 Projections
While the 22/23 season projections are still preliminary without the full 21/22 regular season data, there’s enough data to give us a reasonable picture of what we can expect next season. Rodrigues projection suggests a third line impact again next season, although it’s at the top end of the range. His projected value is up from the 21/22 season and there should be plenty of interest around the league for his next deal.
The Verdict
The one year deal between Evan Rodrigues and the Pittsburgh Penguins is a prime example of the type of contract that helps build a contending team. Not only did the Penguins add a very capable bottom six forward, they did so with a cap hit near the league minimum. By paying Rodrigues less than his projected value, the Penguins were left with nearly $2M in additional cap space that could spend elsewhere. Rodrigues did his part by performing to, and even exceeding, expectation. With only 13 games remaining for Pittsburgh this season, I think we can declare this contract a solid win for the Penguins.
While we’re done with this contract, there are plenty more we can analyze in future posts. Subscribe to get future check-ins on free agent signings and trades, along with other updates from around the NHL.
