This page will be updated with high level assessments of notable trades and extensions as the 2022 trade deadline approaches. It’s not an exhaustive list of all trades, instead focusing on major deals and some other deals of interest. Check back for new updates as teams position themselves for the stretch run.
March 21
Trade: Andrew Copp+ (NYR) / Morgan Barron+ (WPG)
The Rangers added Andrew Copp on deadline day, continuing to add to their contingent of bottom six forwards. With loads of cap space for rentals this season, it’s surprising that New York settled for Copp. It’s even more surprising given the return to Winnipeg, which included a prospect and multiple picks with future value roughly equal to Copp’s current value (roughly double the return from other trades at this deadline).
Trade: Artturi Lehkonen (COL) / Justin Barron+ (MTL)
The Avalanche landed defensive forward Artturi Lehkonen from the Canadiens for Justin Barron and a pick. Lehkonen has a strong projected impact and has outperformed it so far this season so he could be a key acquisition in the playoffs. The return for Montreal looks reasonable, coming in with future value of roughly half Lehkonen’s current value.
March 20
Trade: Nick Paul (TBL) / Mathieu Joseph+ (OTT)
The Lightning acquired Nick Paul from Ottawa for Mathieu Joseph and a pick. While neither player is a significant impact player, it’s interesting in that Paul’s value from the model is less than Joseph’s. Joseph also has the higher actual value and the lower cap hit. All together, it appears the Senators got the better player and got a draft pick thrown in to boot.
Trade: Mark Giordano+ (TOR) / 2nd Round Pick+ (SEA)
The Maple Leafs acquired Mark Giordano and Colin Blackwell from Seattle for a package of picks. It looks like a fantastic deal for the Leafs as they gave up future value of just one quarter of the current value of the two players acquired.
Giordano headlines the trade and improves the Leafs’ defense as he replaces Travis Dermott (see trade below) on the roster. Based on only his projected value, the return to the Kraken is underwhelming given other trades we’ve seen this week. Yet the Leafs got Colin Blackwell in the deal as well, who could be a sneaky good depth addition.
Trade: Travis Dermott (VAN) / 3rd Round Pick (TOR)
The Canucks made a pair of trades that helped them get younger on defense. First, they sent Travis Hamonic to the Senators for a third round pick, then sent a 3rd round pick to Toronto for Travis Dermott. The two defensemen have similar actual impacts this season, yet Dermott’s projected impact is higher suggesting there is more potential. Throw in his cap hit that is half of what Hamonic’s is, and his value is much higher with the opportunity cost included. It’s a savvy pair of moves by the Canucks.
March 19
Trade: Claude Giroux+ (FLA) / Owen Tippett (PHI)
The Panthers doubled down on their elite offensive style, adding Claude Giroux to the mix. Giroux is past his peak, but is still effective and adds to an already impressive forward arsenal in Florida.
The deal looks like a steal for the Panthers, perhaps due to Giroux’s no trade clause. If we look at the net future value of prospects and picks exchanged, the Flyers received only about $2.5M in future value. That’s less than half of Giroux’s current value and easily the smallest return we’ve seen for a rental so far at this year’s deadline.
Trade: Hampus Lindholm+ (BOS) / John Moore+ (ANA)
The Bruins landed one of the defensemen rumored to be available, landing Hampus Lindholm from the Ducks. Lindholm’s impact isn’t what it was a few years ago but he adds depth to an already strong Bruins team defense. The Bruins essentially double down on team defense in this trade, which has them ranked as the top playoff team currently.
The price to add Lindholm was huge. Anaheim got more in return than Montreal did for Ben Chiarot, yet Lindholm’s projected impact is lower than Chiarot’s. With the 50% salary retention, Lindholm’s cap hit is near his projected impact. He’s underperformed the projection so far this season though, and the Bruins will be looking for some improvement over the stretch run in what will likely be a somewhat lesser role.
Trade: Nicolas Deslauriers (MIN) / 3rd Round Pick (ANA)
The Wild acquired Nicolas Deslauriers from Anaheim for a 3rd round pick. It’s the first trade we’ve seen at the 2022 deadline where a rental depth player is exchanged for a single lower round draft pick. The return looks to be inline with the previous trades, with the future value going back to the Ducks sitting slightly over 50% of Deslauriers’ current value. Deslauriers doesn’t move the needle for the Wild, but does provide additional depth for the playoffs.
March 18
Trade: Brandon Hagel+ (TBL) / Taylor Raddysh+ (CHI)
The Lightning acquired Brandon Hagel from the Blackhawks, adding a solid depth forward to their lineup. Hagel comes at a very reasonable $1.5M cap hit and has two years remaining on his contract after this season. He should be a cost effective piece for the Lightning’s bottom as they look to keep their contention window open over the next few years.
The question this year is whether they are any better with Hagel than they were with either Taylor Raddysh or Boris Katchouk in the lineup. Hagel has outperformed both Raddysh and Katchouk so far this season, but mostly due to an unsustainably high 22% 5v5 shooting percentage. Considering the risk of regression on Hagel’s shooting percentage, the Blackhawks got a massive return for him. Raddysh and Katchouk have looked capable at the NHL level this season and, although the first round picks will likely be in the bottom third of the first round, they provide good opportunity to further add to their prospect pool.
March 16
Trade: Calle Jarnkrok (CGY) / 2nd RD Pick+ (SEA)
The Flames added another forward roughly a month after acquiring Tyler Toffoli, this time bringing in Calle Jarnkrok from Seattle. Jarnkrok’s strong defensive game should fit right in on a Flames team that prioritizes checking. He’s also outperformed his projected offensive impact this season and his addition bolsters the Flames bottom six, which was an area of weakness. A pending UFA, adding Jarnkrok doesn’t complicate the Flames cap situation this summer either.
For parting with Jarnkrok, the Kraken received three draft picks spread over the next three seasons, including a 2022 second and a 2023 third. Retaining 50% of Jarnkrok’s salary allowed Calgary to fit under the cap as well as boosting the trade value, likely bringing in an extra draft pick in the return.
Trade: Ben Chiarot (FLA) / 1st RD Pick+ (MTL)
The Florida Panthers made one of the most highly speculated trades, acquiring Ben Chiarot from Montreal for a package of prospects and picks that includes a 2023 1st rounder. Chiarot’s numbers have not been good this season, but it’s reasonable to expect a bounce back playing softer minutes on a strong Panthers team.
The Canadiens retained 50% of Chiarot’s salary in the deal, which brought the trade value up and is likely the reason they were able to get a 1st round pick. Florida is likely to be a strong team again next season, with much of the team under contract for at least one more season, so it’s likely to be a late first round pick which is reflected in the value assessment. Ty Smilanic is a center prospect playing his D+2 year in the NCAA. The Hockey Prospecting model has him rated with a 1% star probability and a 25% NHLer probability.
Extension: Tomas Hertl (SJS)
The San Jose Sharks signed Homas Hertl to an eight year extension with a cap hit of $8.1M. Hertl is a talented player, but it’s a steep price based on his projected impact and age. He’s underperformed his projected offensive output this season. A bounce back season in 22/23 seems likely, but his projected value still comes in well below his new cap hit. Add in the fact that he’s 28 so we’re likely to see declining impact, particularly in the second half of the deal, and that the Sharks are currently a non-playoff team and it’s hard to see what the plan in San Jose is.
Trade: Vatrano (NYR) / 4th RD Pick (FLA)
The Rangers took advantage of the Panthers in this trade, acquiring Frank Vatrano for next to nothing. Vatrano is a solid middle six forward with good 5v5 impacts and his addition improves the Rangers forward depth. The Panthers were clearly interested in clearing cap space to chase bigger fish ahead of the trade deadline, so we’ll wait and see what else they have up their sleeve.
March 15
Trade: Sturm (COL) / Jost (MIN)
The Avalanche and Wild swapped forwards, with Tyson Jost heading to Minnesota and Nico Sturm to Colorado. This is an interesting trade in that the projected and actual player values tell a different story. Jost was projected to be the more impactful player this season, however, it’s been Sturm providing higher value based on actual results. There certainly seems like there is more potential for Jost to trend upward as the season goes on, however, Sturm comes at a lower cap hit. With the Avalanche rumored to be in on some of the other rentals, this could allow them to make another addition before the deadline.
March 14
Trade: Manson (COL) / Helleson+ (ANA)
The Colorado Avalanche made the first move in the week leading up to the trade deadline, acquiring Josh Manson from the Anaheim Ducks. The Avalanche get an upgrade for the bottom of their defensive rotation, along with some injury protection for the playoffs. The Ducks get a good return, including NCAA defense prospect Drew Helleson whom the Hockey Prospecting model rates with a 5% star probability and a 36% NHLer probability.
