In the RFA signing series, we take an in depth look at a deal signed by a restricted free agent along with their performance since and future projections. Today’s subject: Brady Tkachuk and the Ottawa Senators.
The Contract
Date: October 14, 2021
Signed by Ottawa Senators:
- Brady Tkachuk (age 22): 3 year, $8.205M cap hit, UFA at expiry
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
Brady Tkachuk has been one of the key pieces in the Ottawa Senators rebuild and it wasn’t a big surprise to see them agree on a long term deal. The 21/22 season projections had Tkachuk leading the Senators in both 5v5 G/60 and 5v5 P/60. With an overall projected impact of a 2nd line forward, it may say more about the Senators’ lack of high end talent than it does about Tkachuk.
Based on his projected impact for the 21/22 season, Tkachuk’s projected value for 21/22 was $3.868M. With the cap hit for his new deal coming in at $8.205M (and slightly higher for 21/22 due to signing after the season started), this initially looked like a significant overpay. The cap hit sits well above the overall value curve, showing there are plenty of other options out there to find equivalent players for lower cost. From the market rate curve, we can see that this deal is one of the major outliers among deals signed since the beginning of 2020.
To get a more complete picture for the long term value to the Senators, we can look at the current and future value. Current value looks at the 21/22 season, and we see that Tkachuk’s deal is actually proviing negative value to the team when the opportunity cost for signing so far above the value curve is considered. The good news for the long term outlook is that Tkachuk is only 22 so he’s still a few years from his peak. The bad news is that the cap hit is so far above his player value that the gap doesn’t come anywhere near closing. Future looks at the next 5 seasons and we see that Tkachuk’s deal at least moves into positive value territory in the long term, but it’s still a very low value contract.
2021-2022 Performance
To add insult to injury, Tkachuk’s performance this season has been below his projected impact. Offensively, he’s been okay with 5v5 G/60 falling well below projections but 5v5 A1/60 is making up the difference. His individual and on-ice shooting percentages at 5v5 are near leaugue averages so there aren’t any obvious signs that he’s due for an offensive correction. Defense has been the biggest issue this season, with his on-ice xGA/60 falling well above projected and in the bottom quartile among NHL forwards.
22/23 Projections
While the 22/23 season projections are still preliminary without the full 21/22 regular season data, there’s enough data to give us a reasonable picture of what we can expect next season. Tkachuk’s projected impact for the 22/23 season is a top line elite goalscoring forward, with a projected value of $5.82M. It’s a bit of good news following the initial assessment and 21/22 season performance, however it reflects more on the change to the value curve with the removal of pending UFA contracts .
The Verdict
It looked like the Senators jumped the gun signing Tkachuk to a long term deal and his performance this season has put an exclamation mark on it. With a projected value of roughly half his cap hit and performance below projections, early indications are that this could be a problematic contract in Ottawa for years. The good news is that the preliminary 22/23 projections see the gap between his cap hit and the value curve closing, although there is still a long way to go.
I’ll check in on this deal again in the future as there is plenty of time for it to evolve. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this deal and others, along with other updates from around the NHL.
