In the RFA signing series, we take an in depth look at a deal signed by a restricted free agent along with their performance since and future projections. Today’s subject: Elias Pettersson and the Vancouver Canucks.
The Contract
Date: October 1, 2021
Signed by Vancouver Canucks:
- Elias Pettersson (age 22): 3 year, $7.35M cap hit, RFA at expiry
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
Elias Pettersson was an offensive force in Vancouver throughout his ELC seasons and came into the 21/22 season with a projected impact of a solid top line forward. He was projected to lead the Canucks in 5v5 P/60 and was projected 2nd on the team behind Conor Garland in 5v5 G/60. Still a few years from his prime, there was no doubt the Canucks looked at him as a key piece to lock up for the long term.
Based on his projected impact for the 21/22 season, Pettersson’s projected value for 21/22 was $5.79M. With the cap hit for his new deal coming in at $7.35M, the Canucks paid handsomely to retain Pettersson’s services. The cap hit sits above the overall value curve, although not too dramatically. The bigger concern is the current market trend is well below the overall curve, showing us that new deals signed in 2020 and 2021 have generally had lower cap hits. Of course, continued development from Pettersson is a reasonable expectation given he was only 22 at the time of the new deal and that would push his projected value for future seasons closer to his cap hit.
To get a more complete picture for the long term value to the Canucks, we can take a look at current and future value from the team perspective. You can check out the posts on assessing player value for more detail, but these essentially consider player impact and cap space implications for the team. The current value looks at just the 21/22 season while the future value looks at the following five seasons. For the cap strapped Canucks, the 3 year term probably helped improve the future value outlook here due to the cap space available in years 3-5. It may cost more to re-sign Pettersson in a few years, but they’ve kicked that can down the road for now.
2021-2022 Performance
It’s been a rough season for Pettersson so far, with his offensive production well below the level that we’ve become accustomed to. He’s shooting 11.48% at 5v5, which is the lowest of his career but is still strong. It may be that expectations were set too high over his first three seasons where he never shot below 15% and some eventual downward regression was likely. His shot rates are also the lowest of his career, though, so we could see an uptick if he can correct that. His primary assist rate is abysmal this season, but it’s looks likely that poor on-ice SH% is behind it and we should expect to see a correction in the long run.
While offense has been a struggle, the good news is that Pettersson’s defensive impact has been as projected and sits near the league median for NHL forwards. While he won’t win a Selke, he’s not a defensive liability either.
22/23 Projections
While the 22/23 season projections are still preliminary without the full 21/22 regular season data, there’s enough data to give us a reasonable picture of what we can expect next season. Pettersson’s projected impact for the 22/23 season is a 2nd line offensive forward, with a projected value of $4.89M, obviously trending in the wrong direction for the Canucks.
The Verdict
The 3 year bridge deal between the Canucks and Pettersson looked like an overpay based on our value assessment. However, it may have been the right move by the Canucks as Pettersson’s production has dropped off dramatically this season and there are some signs that his production in previous seasons may have been inflated by some percentage luck. Pettersson is still a valuable top six forward, but the Canucks may have dodged a bullet by not signing a long term deal.
I’ll check in on this deal again in the future as there is plenty of time for it to evolve. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this deal and others, along with other updates from around the NHL.
