Adam Boqvist has been near the top of the defensemen 5v5 goal and point rate leaderboards for weeks, which got me wondering how the trade that brought him to Columbus looks half a season later. With Seth Jones reportedly informing the Blue Jackets that he would not re-sign in Columbus, the Jackets put Jones on the trade block last summer with one season left on his contract. They found a trade partner in the Blackhawks and completed one of the bigger deals of the offseason. There’s lots to digest here, including an extension and secondary trade, so let’s dig into the deal.
The Trade
Date: July 23, 2021
To Chicago Blackhawks:
- Seth Jones (1 years remaining @ $5.4M cap hit, M-NTC, age 27, UFA on expiry)
- 2021 1st Round Pick (TBL – #32)
- 2022 6th Round Pick (CBJ)
To Columbus Blue Jackets:
- Adam Boqvist (1 years remaining @ $894k cap hit, age 21, RFA on expiry)
- 2021 1st Round Pick (CHI – #12)
- 2021 2nd Round Pick (CHI – #44)
- 2022 1st Round Pick (*Conditions: If Chicago wins one of the the 2022 draft lotteries and the lottery win results in the pick being top 2 overall, the pick becomes their 2023 1st round pick)
Initial Value Assessment
When we start the value assessment comparing the two players involved, we find a significant discrepancy right off the bat. Jones has struggled over the past couple of seasons compared to his stellar play in years prior and his projected impact for the 21/22 season reflects that. His projected impact of 0.58 5v5 Net G/60 above replacement is only good enough to be considered a 3rd pair defensemen when we compare across the league. In contrast, Boqvist’s projected impact of 0.79 5v5 Net G/60 AR is good enough to be at the low end of the range for top pair defensemen. Adding modifiers for contract expiry status and opportunity cost only exaggerates the difference. Boqvist is still on his ELC, so will be an RFA at the end of his current deal. For defensemen of his impact, the market value over the past 2 years has been lower for signing RFAs than UFAs, so Columbus can expect to sign him for slightly less than if they replaced him on the open UFA market. The opportunity cost component represents the cap efficiency and it makes a big difference here. Jones has a cap hit well above his projected value, tying up cap space that could used elsewhere. Meanwhile, Boqvist is providing much higher value than his ELC cap hit, allowing his team to spend that cap space elsewhere.
With player values determined, it looks like Columbus is a big winner in this deal but we’re not done. Adding the value for the draft picks swings the trade even further in the Jackets favor. All in, Columbus received over $12M in value in the trade while Chicago received under $2M. With more than a 600% return in this trade, the Blue Jackets are the clear winner in the deal.
| To PHI | To CBJ | |
| Seth Jones – Player Impact (0.58 5v5 Net G/60 AR) | $2,994,000 | – |
| Seth Jones – Contract Expiry Status (UFA) | $0 | – |
| Seth Jones – Opportunity Cost | -$2,406,000 | – |
| 2021 1st Round Pick (TBL – #32) | $1,453,410 | – |
| 2022 6th Round Pick (CBJ) | $323,855 | – |
| Adam Boqvist – Player Impact (0.79 5v5 Net G/60 AR) | – | $3,660,000 |
| Adam Boqvist – Contract Expiry Status (UFA) | – | $222,600 |
| Adam Boqvist – Opportunity Cost | – | $2,765,833 |
| 2021 1st Round Pick (CHI – #12) | – | $2,349,795 |
| 2021 2nd Round Pick (CHI – #44) | – | $914,275 |
| 2022 1st Round Pick (CHI) *Conditional | – | $2,296,340 |
| Total Value | $1,957,196 | $12,208,843 |
If you missed the posts on assessing value, you can find them here: Part 1 (Player Impact), Part 2 (Other Factors for Players), Part 3 (Prospects and Picks).
Performance Updates
While Columbus won this trade handily based on the initial assessment, the player impacts and draft pick values were theoretical. Let’s take a look at how each player and pick has performed since the trade to see of there is reason to change the verdict on the trade.
Chicago Blackhawks – Seth Jones
Jones has performed very close to projections so far this season. His 5v5 xGA/60 is trending slightly below projected and below the league median. Offensively, his 5v5 on-ice GF/60 is well below projected. However, his individual point rates are very close to the projections, so it’s likely the on-ice numbers reflect more on the performance of line mates than on Jones. Through 35 games, Jones looks like the player we projected.
While it’s a separate transaction, it’s also worth noting that the Blackhawks signed Jones to an 8 year extension with a $9.5M cap hit after acquiring him in the offseason. With Jones performing near the projection this season, there’s no evidence to suggest we’ll see him bounce back with an elite impact. His projected value is near peak now, at roughly $3M, and this could become an albatross contract that holds the Blackhawks back for years.
Chicago Blackhawks – 2021 1st Round Pick (TBL – #32)
The Blackhawks used the first round pick they received in the trade to select Nolan Allan 32nd overall. A defenseman currently with the Prince Albert Raiders in the WHL, Allen has a slim chance of becoming an impact player at the NHL level based on prospect ratings by Hockey Prospecting. A 1% star probability and 18% NHLer probability is a big drop from the 8.3% and 44.4% probabilities for a late first round pick. It works out to a value of $573,800, a drop of nearly $1M from the value of the pick.
2022 6th Round Pick (CBJ)
A future asset with nothing to evaluate yet.
Columbus Blue Jackets – Adam Boqvist
Boqvist has been sitting at the top of the 5v5 G/60 leaderboard for weeks. His goal production is through the roof so far this season due to a 26% shooting percentage at 5v5. That’s obviously not sustainable (the average for defensemen is about 4%) and we’re likely to see his G/60 trend lower in the long term. His defensive impact has been near projected, with 5v5 xGA/60 sitting just below the league median.
At age 21, Boqvist has plenty of time to develop before he hits his prime years. His projected value is expected to rise over the next few years such that he looks like a top pair defenseman for Columbus for years to come. While his shooting percentage will regress in the long run, that will just bring him closer to the projection, so there aren’t any big red flags in this years performance that are likely to change the projection significantly.
Columbus Blue Jackets – 2021 1st Round Pick (CHI – #12)
The Blue Jackets selected Cole Sillinger with the 12th overall pick in the 2021 draft. Sillinger’s prospect probabilities from the Hockey Prospecting model are better than the typical 7.1% star probability and 75.3% NHLer probability for a mid first round pick. Sillinger made the NHL roster out camp this season and has not looked out of place through 34 games with the Jackets. He’s putting up offensive and defensive numbers near the league medians and looks like a safe bet to hold down a permanent spot on the NHL roster with a relatively good chance of becoming a start producer..
Columbus Blue Jackets – 2021 2nd Round Pick (CHI – #44)
The Blue Jackets didn’t hold on to Chicago’s second round pick for long, flipping it to the Carolina Hurricanes for Jake Bean later the same day. Bean came to Columbus as a restricted free agent with a projected impact of 0.77 Net G/60 AR (just slightly less than Boqvist). Based on his projected impact, his projected value is $3,589,000, which is a substantial gain from the value of the pick ($914k). Columbus proceeded to sign him to a $2.33M cap hit for 3 years, after which he’ll still be an RFA, gaining additional value in opportunity cost and expiry status. Bean has performed below projections on both sides of the puck this season, however, so it may be his value is somewhat lower than the projection. Even if that’s the case, the Jackets likely got significantly more value than they would have from the second round pick.
Columbus Blue Jackets – 2022 1st Round Pick (CHI) *conditional
A future asset with nothing to evaluate yet.
The Verdict
The Blue Jackets got a return of over 600% based on the initial assessment of this trade. With the Blackhawks further eroding value with a questionable draft pick and the Blue Jackets continuing to find more value with their first round pick and a follow-up trade, the gap has only gotten bigger since the deal.
There’s plenty of time for the results of this trade to evolve, so we’ll keep our eye on it for future update. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this trade and others, check-ins on free agent signings, armchair GM plans, and other updates from around the NHL.
