We don’t see a lot of one for one trades, particularly with higher impact players, but we got one last offseason with a swap between the Philadelphia Flyers and the Columbus Blue Jackets. Jakub Voracek headed back to Columbus for a second stint with the Jackets while Cam Atkinson headed to Philly. Let’s take a look at the early returns on the trade.
The Trade
Date: July 24, 2021
To Philadelphia Flyers:
- Cam Atkinson (4 years remaining @ $5.875M cap hit, M-NTC, age 32)
To Columbus Blue Jackets:
- Jakub Voracek (3 years remaining @ $8.25M cap hit, age 31)
Initial Value Assessment
If we look at simply the projected impact of each player, the Blue Jackets won this trade by getting the better player. Voracek has a top line projected impact for the 21/22 season, while Atkinson’s comes in as a second line forward. However, when we start to consider implications in the salary cap system, things start to change. Based on projected value, both players have cap hits higher than the value they bring and the discrepancy is much larger in Voracek’s case. With the cap savings considered, it looks like Philadelphia got the better deal as they can use the additional cap space for further roster upgrades.
If you missed the posts on assessing value, you can find them here: Part 1 (Player Impact), Part 2 (Other Factors for Players), Part 3 (Prospects and Picks).
| To PHI | To CBJ | |
| Cam Atkinson – Player Impact (0.78 5v5 Net G/60 AR) | $4,105,000 | – |
| Cam Atkinson – Contract Expiry Status (UFA) | $0 | – |
| Cam Atkinson – Opportunity Cost | -$1,770,000 | – |
| Jakub Voracek – Player Impact (1.02 5v5 Net G/60 AR) | – | $4,912,000 |
| Jakub Voracek – Contract Expiry Status (UFA) | – | $0 |
| Jakub Voracek – Opportunity Cost | – | -$3,338,000 |
| Total Value | $2,335,000 | $1,574,000 |
2021-2022 Performance
Philadelphia Flyers – Cam Atkinson
Atkinson has had a strong start to his Flyers career offensively. He’s outperforming his projected 5v5 primary point rates and 5v5 on-ice GF/60 by significant margins. He’s shooting 12% at 5v5, which isn’t outrageous but is the second highest of his career. His 5v5 on-ice SH% is also riding a bit high at 11.5%, helping him to his strong offensive impact this season. Defense has been a very different story, with his 5v5 on-ice xGA/60 sitting in the top quartile among forwards, well above projections.
Columbus Blue Jackets – Jakub Voracek
Voracek has been snakebitten in his return to Columbus, with no 5v5 goals through 33 games this season. His playmaking has been on full display, however, and he’s outperforming his projected 5v5 primary assist rate. His previous low for SH% was 5.56% in the 16/17 season, so the goals are likely to come. His defensive impact has been better than Atkinson’s, but still sits above the 75th percentile for 5v5 on-ice xGA/60.
The Verdict
The Flyers had the upper hand in the initial assessment. Atkinson’s strong offensive output this season and Voracek’s goal scoring struggles lean the same way, so at this point it looks like Philadelphia won this trade.
There ‘s plenty of time for the results of this trade to evolve and I’ll check in on it again in the future. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this trade and others, check-ins on free agent signings, armchair GM plans, and other updates from around the NHL.
