Armchair GM: Winnipeg Jets – Jan 2022

As an Armchair GM, we’ll put ourselves in the driver’s seat of an NHL team and put together a plan to contend for the Stanley Cup. Today, we’re sitting in Kevin Cheveldayoff’s chair as we take charge of the Winnipeg Jets.

Current Season Performance

Team Performance

Date: 2022-JAN-09

Record: 16-12-5 (0.561 P%, 37 Pts), 5th in the Central

Current Projected P%: 0.542 (89 Pts), 6th in the Central

Season Opening Projected P%: 0.520 (85 Pts), 7th in the Central

Team Performance:

The Jets revamped their defense corps over the offseason in what looked like an attempt to improve their defensive numbers. While the changes were substantial, they find themselves in familiar territory in the 21/22 season with strong offensive numbers contrasting with poor defensive numbers. They are roughly break even in expected goals for and against at 5v5. Strong goaltending has helped lower their actual goals against but poor finishing has done the same to the offense. The powerplay has been average while the penalty kill could stand to improve. Overall, they sit outside the playoff picture chasing a wildcard spot as we approach the midpoint of the season.

For more plots on the current season performance, see the Winnipeg Jets team page.

Current Roster Construction

The Jets’ projected roster strength shows some weaknesses, particularly in the top 4 defense and bottom 6 forwards. Their projected even strength defense is very weak as a result and it foreshadowed their high xGA rate this season. With their core players in their prime, the Jets should be contending but there too many holes in the roster to be considered true contenders. With a number of players signed to large cap hits providing much less in projected value, some changes appear to be necessary to make more efficient use of cap space.

Long Term Outlook

The Jets have most of their current core players under contract for at least one more season. With spending inefficiency present in many of the current contracts, even spending their remaining cap space efficiently over the next couple of seasons doesn’t look likely turn the Jets into a significantly stronger team. They’ll have to shed some inefficient contracts to make significant roster improvements.

Hockey Prospecting ranks the Jets prospect system 22nd in the NHL. With a below average prospect pool to pull from, it will be difficult for Winnipeg to find high volumes of young players that can provide NHL impact while on entry level contracts over the next few seasons. The best bets appear to be Cole Perfetti at forward and Ville Heinola on defense.

Objective

Status:

Contending

Re-tooling

Re-building

Re-stocking

Target Contention Window:

Starting 2022-2023

Comments:

The Jets roster isn’t strong enough to be considered a contender as currently constructed and their prospect pool is not adequately stocked to supplement the current core with high value ELC contracts. With a number of high impact players in their prime, however, it’s not time to throw in the towel and head for a rebuild. Moving some inefficient contracts to free up cap space could help find the resources required to upgrade the roster into a contender.

Current Lineup

Let’s walk through the current crop of players and assess where each might fit into the re-tooled roster. We’ll look at current season performance compared with 21/22 season projections to get a picture of current impact. We’ll also look at long term impact projections are also provided for longer term considerations. We’ll focus on regular NHL roster players in this section.

Forwards – Top Six

Mark Scheifele (C) – Scheifele has been an elite offensive player with questionable defensive impacts for years and we see that in his numbers this year. Offensively, he’s producing slightly below projected levels at 5v5, however his on-ice 5v5 GF/60 is slightly above projected and sits at the 75th percentile among forwards. Defensively, he’s high in the top quartile, near the high mark for on-ice xGA/60 among forwards. Now in his prime, Scheifele’s impact is expected to be steady for the next few seasons. With 2 more years at a $6.125M cap hit, however, this is one of the low value contracts that the Jets need to take a hard look at. Scheifele could be a valuable player in the top six, however, could also be moved to free up cap space.

Kyle Connor (LW) – Another skilled offensive forward in the top six, Connor has a strong offensive impact. Primarily a goal scorer, he’s been hot this season and sits well above his projected 5v5 G/60. He’s done so with a 14% shooting percentage which is on the high side but is not out of line with Connor’s historical numbers. Similar to Scheifele, Connor is not as strong defensively and his defensive impact brings his overall projected impact down to a second line forward. He’s another of the low value contracts in the Jets’ top six tying up valuable cap space. With four years remaining on his deal after this one, he could be a difficult player to move. He’s just entering his prime though, which could make him a more attractive target.

Blake Wheeler (RW, C) – The captain is now in his mid-30s and we can expect declining impact. This season, his projected impact is a third line forward, which drops into fourth line territory by next season. While his 5v5 primary assist rate is much better than expected this season, his goal scoring and overall offensive impact are below projections. Along with poor defensive impact, Wheeler looks like a prime candidate to try to move in a re-tooling effort given his age. However, with two more years on his deal after this season at an $8.25M cap hit, making a move could be a tall task.

Nikolaj Ehlers (RW, LW)– The only Jets skater with a top line forward projected impact for this season, Ehlers is a strong two-way player. He’s performing near projected rates offensively this season, although his defensive numbers are much worse than projected. Perhaps the recent coaching change will help turn around the Jets’ defensive game or perhaps the roster needs some changes. In either case, Ehlers is early in his prime and a strong contributor. Ehlers is a key forward to keep in the core group through the re-tool process.

Paul Stastny (C, LW) – Stastny has been an key player for the Jets’ top six during his tenure in Winnipeg, bringing a strong two-way game. He’s in the midst of another strong season, outperforming his offensive projections. While his defensive impact isn’t strong by league wide standards, it’s the best we’ve seen among Jet’s forwards so far. Now in his mid-30s, his impact is starting to wane with his impact projection dipping into bottom six territory by next season. His better than projected performance this season may be a sign that his decline will be more gradual, but another possible explanation is that his 20% shooting this season is helping buoy this year’s numbers. A pending unrestricted free agent, Stastny doesn’t fit well with our re-tooling plans and we need to explore all of our options ahead of the trade deadline.

Pierre-Luc Dubois (C) – After struggling in Winnipeg last season following his unceremonious exit from Columbus, Dubois is putting together a solid season for the Jets. His performance is inline with projections, which peg him as a second line forward. As a pending RFA, the Jets are in a position to ensure that his cap hit stays reasonable for his impact. Just 23, Dubois likely hasn’t hit his ceiling yet and he looks like a potentially valuable piece for our re-tooling effort.

Forwards – Bottom Six

Andrew Copp (LW, C) – Copp’s projected impact this season is a third line forward and, so far, his performance has been near projections offensively. Continuing the theme we saw in the top six, Copp has struggled defensively this season. He’s a pending UFA in the early part of his prime that could be poised for a big payday. He could be a valuable piece in the bottom six but since we’re actively trying to shed poor value contracts in our re-tool effort, we need to be careful with the cap hit if we decide to extend Copp.

Dominic Toninato (LW, C) – Dominic Toninato has found a regular spot in the lineup for the Jets this season. At age 27, he’s likely hit his ceiling. With another year at the league minimum on his contract, he’s a depth player that can contribute but one who can also be replaced.

Adam Lowry (C) – Lowry is 28 with a projected impact of a borderline fourth line forward this season. With four more years on his deal after this season at a $3.25M cap hit, there is some spending inefficiency here. If we can find a taker, we’d happily move Lowry and fill his spot with a more cap efficient contract to free up some cap space. To further complicate matters, however, Lowry has a modified no-trade clause.

Kristian Vesalainen (LW, RW) – Vesalainen is just 22 and still on his entry level deal for this season. With a third line projected impact that is expected to rise into top six territory in the next 1-2 seasons, Vesalainen looks like a good option to find some cap efficiency in our middle six forwards. With just 46 career NHL games spread over three season, we should be cautious with the projection still though. With his individual 5v5 point rates trending below projections this season, our projection may be high based on limited data.

Evgeny Svechnikov (LW, RW) – Svechnikov is on a league minimum cap hit this season and is a pending RFA. He’s performed near projections so far and has been one of the Jets better forwards from a defensive standpoint. His projected impact is a 4th line forward and it may be worth extending him provided the ask is reasonable.

Jansen Harkins (LW, C) – Harkins has a projected impact this season of a replacement level player and his ceiling looks likely to be as a fourth line forward. A pending RFA, it may be worth extending him for organizational depth.

Defensemen

Josh Morrissey (LD) – With a replacement level projected impact, Morrissey is out of place in the top four defense group. While his on-ice 5v5 GF/60 is trending above his projection this season, his individual production is not, suggesting his line mates are the driver for the on-ice numbers. His on-ice xGA/60 is at the 75th percentile, so he hasn’t been a defensive presence either. With a long term deal in place at a $6.25M cap hit, this is a difficult situation to navigate.

Neal Pionk (RD) – Pionk was a force against Connor McDavid in last spring’s playoff tilt with the Oilers and it helped earn him a nice extension last summer. Unfortunately, Pionk’s projected impact is only a third pair defenseman and he’s probably near his ceiling. He’s been chipping in offensively at higher than projected rates this season, which provides reason for optimism, yet his defensive impact is in the top quartile for 5v5 xGA/60. Pionk could fit into our re-tooling plans, but may also be an option as a trade chip.

Nate Schmidt (LD/RD) – The Jets acquired Schmidt from the Canucks in the offseason as they performed an overhaul on their defense corps. The results haven’t been what Winnipeg was hoping for and a look at Schmidt’s projected impact gives some indication why the Jets defense hasn’t seen a big improvement. He has a replacement level impact that could start declining in the near future as Schmidt gets into his 30s. With three more years on the books at nearly $6M cap hit, Schmidt’s contract is another low value deal we’d prefer to be rid of.

Brendan Dillon (LD) – Dillon was the other big acquisition last summer in the Jets’ defensive overhaul. At the tail end of his prime, Dillon’s projected impact is starting to taper off and he looks like a third pair defenseman this season. With on-ice GF/60 and xGA/60 both much higher than projected, it’s hard to make out the best fit for Dillon at the moment.

Dylan DeMelo (RD) – DeMelo is another skater with replacement level projected impact manning the Jets’ blueline. While his defensive impacts have been better than most of the other skaters, his offensive impact has been below projections. With two years left after this season at a $3M cap hit, it’s yet more spending inefficiency in the defense corps.

Logan Stanley (LD) – Stanley the highest projected impact amongst the Jets top six defensemen although there is reason for caution since we have only one season of historical NHL data. Defensively, we see a high xGA/60 at 5v5 from Stanley this season. Since we’ve seen the same thing almost universally through the lineup, it’s reasonable to consider the possibility that it may be a coaching/systems issue rather than an individual performance issue. Offensively, his on-ice GF/60 is below projections, but we see decent individual point production relative to projections. With one more season left at a $900k cap hit, Stanley seems like a low cost defensemen that we’d like to keep around.

Goaltenders

Connor Hellebuyck (G) – A season removed from winning the Vezina Trophy as the leagues best goaltender, Connor Hellebuyck masks a lot of the Jets’ defensive issues. He’s once again putting up some of the best performances in the league and, at age 28, we expect he’ll continue to do so through our re-tool.

Eric Comrie (G) – Comrie has been solid when called upon this season, sitting above the league median for GSAx/60. At age 26, he’s still got plenty to offer and could be a suitable backup for the re-tool. A pending RFA, it will come down to the cap hit.

The Plan

The Jets have some good pieces for a contending team. The trouble is that they also have some good pieces with large cap hits, degrading their value in a cap system. They also have a weak defense corps that needs a significant upgrade. To succeed in a re-tool, we need to offload some high cap hit, low value contracts to free up cap space. We can them use the cap space to fix the defense corps and fill in holes up front.

2021-2022 Trade Deadline

This is not a year to be all-in at the deadline in the hopes of landing a wildcard playoff berth just to find ourselves in a first round matchup with the powerhouse Colorado Avalanche. In fact, going all-in may deplete the prospect pool to the point that a re-build becomes a necessity. Instead, we’re going to try to supplement the prospect pool and free up cap space so we can ice a contender next season.
Trade Paul Stastny. He’s the sort of solid two-way player that playoff teams covet and we should be able to get a decent return. We’re also not likely to bring him back in the offseason as the roster currently stands. Our target return is a young, NHL ready defensemen or prospect along with any throw ins we can get. Moving Stastny out also opens a spot in the top six where we can audition Cole Perfetti for a permanent role. Perfetti’s card from Hockey Prospecting is below. He’s likely to be an NHL regular and has a decent 45% star probability. If he’s ready for the role, we get to fill it with a high value contract while he is still on an ELC.

Trade Andrew Copp. The same logic applies as it did with Stastny. We may decide only to move one of the two to hold the roster together this season and take a reasonable run at the playoffs while we re-tool. Moving them both is certainly an option as well.
Try to offload a low value contract. Similar to creating a hole for Perfetti up front, we’ll try to create a hole to audition Ville Heinola on defense. His prospect ratings (card below from Hockey Prospecting) aren’t as strong as Perfetti’s, but it’s worth finding out if he can hold down a spot at least on the bottom pair. Heinola plays the left side, so we’ll look to move either Morrissey or Dillon. Morrissey would be our preferred option to gain the most cap space.

2022 Offseason

The focus in the 2022 offseason is offloading low value contracts and older players and adding young players either still developing or in their prime.
Re-sign key RFAs, including Dubois and Comrie. Dubois is a key player to keep, yet the cap hit has to stay at a reasonable level.
We’ll assume that our late season auditions for Perfetti and Heinola were reasonably successful. We’ll slot Perfetti in for a top six spot and Heinola into the bottom pair. Obviously, this could change based on their performance to close out the 21/22 season.
We’ll also assume that we were successful in moving Morrissey at the deadline, although it’s quite possible that we have some retained salary to show for it, and that the main piece in the return was a prospect.
Trade Nate Schmidt, Dylan DeMelo, and Blake Wheeler to free up cap space and open positions on the right side of the defense. The target return is young NHL ready players to fill the resulting holes and the hole left by not re-signing Stastny and Copp. We’ll assume we’re successful with trading Wheeler and DeMelo with a couple of NHL ready bottom six forwards coming back along with picks and prospects.
Target a top four right defensemen and a top six winger in free agency. This obviously is dependent on the trades from the point above in order to free up cap space.

2023 Offseason

Continue to offload low value contracts to keep the re-tooling effort from derailing. Mark Scheifele joins Nate Schmidt on the trade block in the 2023 offseason. Scheifele will be a pending UFA in the upcoming season and we’d like to upgrade at our 1C position.
Target adding a top line center to replace Scheifele, along with a top four defenseman.