I’ve been checking in on some of the more prominent free agent signings from last offseason to see how they are performing with their new teams. Today, we’ll check in on Paul Stastny who signed a one year extension with the Jets a few days ahead of free agency opening.
The Contract
Date: July 26, 2021
Signed by Winnipeg Jets:
- Paul Stastny (age 35): 1 year, $3.75M cap hit
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
With some of Winnipeg’s other stars getting much of the spotlight, Paul Stastny has quietly been a solid contributor to the Jets top six during his tenure in Winnipeg. At age 35 at the time of his latest contract , Stastny’s projected impact is starting to decline. He still looks like a valuable middle six forward for this season though and the one year term protects the Jets from declining impact in the late stages of his career.
Stastny’s projected Impact for the 2021/2022 season is 0.65 5v5 Net G/60 Above Replacement, which is a borderline 2nd/3rd line forward. The market value for a UFA forward of Stastny’s impact is $2,299,338, so the Jets overpaid to extend Stastny based on other free agent deals from 2020 and 2021. However, the market curve is currently below the overall value curve and Stastny’s overall value is over $3.1M, much closer to his cap hit. In other words, while the cap hit appears high based on UFA market value, there is less of a discrepancy if we consider other means that players can be acquired (such as trades) where the contract is already in place.
| To WPG | |
| Paul Stastny – Player Impact | $3,156,000 |
| Paul Stastny – Contract Expiry (UFA) | $0 |
| Paul Stastny – Opportunity Cost | -$594,000 |
| Total Value | $2,562,000 |
2021-2022 Performance
Winnipeg Jets – Paul Stastny
Stastny’s impact through the first third of the season has been a mixed bag relative to projections. His 5v5 defensive impact is significantly worse than expected, with 5v5 xGA/60 sitting above the 75th percentile and well above his projection. With the recent coaching change in Winnipeg, we may soon get a better idea if this was a team or usage effect or whether age is starting to become a factor in Stastny’s defensive game. Offensively, things have been much better with Stastny’s 5v5 on-ice GF/60 and individual point production exceeding projections so far. Stastny is shooting over 20% at 5v5 this season, which is too high to be sustainable in the long term. The hope for the Jets will be that it only regresses modestly before the end of the season and the end of Stastny’s contract.
The Verdict
Based on the early returns, the Jets are getting roughly the value they signed up for from Stastny although it’s come in a slightly different form. His defensive impact is worse than projected while offense has been a good news story. The Jets overpaid for Stastny based on recent market trends but he’s provided an overall impact that is roughly as expected.
We’re not quite half way through the one year deal, so there ‘s plenty of time for the results of this contract to evolve and I’ll check in on it again in the future. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this deal and others, trade check-ins, armchair GM plans and other updates from around the NHL.
