The Winnipeg Jets set out to revamp their defense corps this past offseason, bringing in a couple of D-men by trade. Brenden Dillon was one such addition, coming over from Washington for a package of draft picks. Let’s take a look at the early returns on the trade.
The Trade
Date: July 26, 2021
To Winnipeg Jets:
- Brenden Dillon (3 years remaining @ $3.9M cap hit, UFA on expiry, age 30)
To Washington Capitals:
- 2022 2nd Round Pick (WPG)
- 2023 2nd Round Pick (WPG)
Projections (Jets):
Dillon was one of multiple additions to the Jets defense during the offseason, as they looked to shore up their blueline. His projected impact for the 2021-2022 season is a high end second pair defensemen. Now in his 30s, it’s reasonable to expect declining impact from Dillon in future seasons, although he should be a capable second pair defender through the remaining years on his contract.
Initial Value Assessment
Using the valuation techniques discussed in the series on assessing asset values, Winnipeg got the slightly better deal in this trade. With the Capitals’ cap situation tight, it may have provided the Jets with a bit of leverage to get the upper hand.
If you missed the posts on assessing value, you can find them here: Part 1 (Player Impact), Part 2 (Other Factors for Players), Part 3 (Prospects and Picks).
| To WPG | To WSH | |
| Brenden Dillon – Player Impact | $3,078,000 | – |
| Brenden Dillon – Contract Expiry (UFA) | $0 | – |
| Brenden Dillon – Opportunity Cost | -$822,000 | – |
| 2022 2nd Round Pick | – | $946,940 |
| 2023 2nd Round Pick | – | $946,940 |
| Total Value | $2,256,000 | $1,893,880 |
2021-2022 Performance
Winnipeg Jets – Brenden Dillon
In his first 30 games in Winnipeg, Dillon has not been the defensive solution the Jets were looking for in the offseason. His defensive impact at 5v5 is in the upper quartile among defensemen this season, which is a far cry from his projection. His on-ice 5v5 GF/60 is much better than projected, although he has very few primary points so it appears his offensive impact has been primarily driven by line mates.
Washington Capitals – 2022 2nd Round Pick (WPG)
A future asset with nothing to evaluate yet.
Washington Capitals – 2023 2nd Round Pick (WPG)
A future asset with nothing to evaluate yet.
The Verdict
At the time of the trade, it looked as though Winnipeg got the upper hand in this deal. However, Dillon has performed below his projected impact so far this season which has eroded that edge. With Paul Maurice resigning earlier in December, time will tell if a different voice behind the bench results in improvements to Dillon’s results. At this point, this trade looks like a toss up.
There ‘s plenty of time for the results of this trade to evolve and I’ll check in on it again in the future. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this trade and others, check-ins on free agent signings, armchair GM plans, and other updates from around the NHL.
