Armchair GM: New York Rangers (Dec 2021)

As the New York Rangers rebuild was starting to turn the corner last season, ownership decided a change of direction was needed after a promising season fell short of the playoffs. The Rangers clearly set out to add toughness over the offseason. Will the change in tact push the rebuild over the hump and make the Rangers contenders? Let’s take a look at the current roster and put together an Armchair GM plan for the Rangers.

Current Season Performance

Team Performance

Date: 2021-DEC-16

Record: 19-7-3 (41 Pts), 1st in the Metropolitan

Current Projected P%: 0.624 (102 Pts), 2nd in the Metropolitan

Season Opening Projected P%: 0.596 (98 Pts), 1st in the Metropolitan

Team Performance:

The Rangers got off to a good start this season and have had steady results thus far. They’ve only lost back-to-back games three times this season and only once were both losses in regulation. Their special teams have been good: they rank in the top quartile in both 5v4 GF/60 and 4v5 GA/60. Their special teams success may be masking some concerning trends in their 5v5 play, however. With a 5v5 actual goals for percentage at roughly break even, success on special teams has been enough to find some wins. With an expected goals for percentage tilting against them, the Rangers have relied on strong goaltending at 5v5.

For more plots on the current season performance, see the New York Rangers team page.

Current Roster Construction

The Rangers roster is full of young talent after a stint in a rebuild process and they are have good projected value for their cap expenditure this season. The roster is balanced from an offense and defense perspective, providing a strong foundation for a good two-way team. The biggest weakness is depth. Both the bottom six forwards and the bottom defense pair rank below the respective league average impacts.

Long Term Outlook

The Rangers are spending efficiently this season, but that changes next year. Extensions for Adam Fox and Mika Zibanejad kick-in next season, with a combined cap increase of $12.65M. It leaves the Rangers with little cap space to work with for 22/23. Relative to other teams around the league, the Ranger have a lot of cap space committed later in the 5 year projection and will have to spend wisely to capitalize on the end of their rebuild.

The Rangers prospect system is in good shape after their rebuild, with Hockey Prospecting ranking it 7th in the NHL. There is a bit of caution to be exercise here with Alex Lafreniere, K’Andre Miller, and Igor Shesterking playing key roles for the Rangers, yet still qualifying as prospects based on number of NHL games played. There are plenty of other prospects with decent odds of becoming NHL regulars, though, and the Rangers should have some options in the organization to fill depth roles on low cost ELCs over the next few seasons.

Objective

Status:

Contending

Re-tooling

Re-building

Re-stocking

Target Contention Window:

Now

Comments:

The Rangers strong start this season is enough to suggest the rebuild is over and it’s time to start tweaking the roster to become a legitimate contender. The lack of depth in their current roster may simply be the end of the rebuild showing and the Rangers should look to fill out the bottom of their roster with high value players that can help their 5v5 play.

Current Lineup

Current season performance is provided for comparison with 21/22 season projections for the full strength lineup. Long term impact projections are also provided for long term considerations. Lines are provided as a reference for likely combinations at full strength, but it’s expected that the lineup will be shuffled on a regular basis by the head coach. Players that are out long term with injuries are also included for consideration in the multi-year plan.

Line 1 – Chris Kreider / Mika Zibanejad / Kappo Kakko

Veterans Kreider and Zibanejad team up with youngster Kakko on the top line. Kreider and Zibanejad are legitimate top line talents, which is projected to remain the case for the next few seasons. Both are performing below projections so far this season, however, so the Rangers should watch for signs of an earlier decline. Kakko is performing above projections offensively, however only has the projected impact of a bottom 6 forward. While it’s not what the Rangers hoped for out of their former 2nd overall pick, he is capable of contributing but would be better suited further down the lineup. With Kreider and Zibanejad both signed long term, they are likely a fixture in New York’s top six for the next few seasons.

Line 2 – Artemi Panarin / Ryan Strome / Sammy Blais

Artemi Panarin headlines the second line and is the Rangers’ highest projected impact forward this season. Signed for four more years following this season, Panarin has the talent to drive offense in the top 6. Ryan Strome and Sammy Blais are capable NHLers, but may not be ideal line mates for Panarin which may be the cause of Panarin’s low production relative to his projected numbers. Strome and Blais both have projected impacts this season as third line forwards. With Blais out of the season, the Rangers will fill out the top six with another skater this season.

Line 3 – Alex Lafreniere / Barclay Goodrow / Dryden Hunt

The Rangers depth was an issue we saw in the roster strength overview and it starts to show here. Dryden Hunt has been a nice addition this season and has been getting an opportunity in the top 6 recently. He’s performing near his projected impact of a second line forward and could be a good fit on the second line long term. Barclay Goodrow, signed to a long term deal in the offseason, is providing projected value of $2.4M relative to a cap hit of $3.6M. The Rangers probably overpaid for the bottom six forward likely near his peak at age 28. Alex Lafreniere, a former 1st overall pick, is still finding his way at the NHL level. The long term projection puts him with a the bottom six impact through the next 5 years.

Line 4 – Julien Gauthier / Filip Chytil / Ryan Reaves

Gauthier and Chytil are included on the fourth line here, but both have seen time further up the lineup this season. Gauthier’s projected impact is a 3rd line forward, while Chytil’s is a second line forward with top line potential. Both are performing near their projected impacts this season. Ryan Reaves was brought in for toughness and comes with a borderline fourth line forward impact. With a projected decline to replacement level impact imminent, the Rangers shouldn’t get too attached to Reaves.

Pair 1 – Ryan Lindgren / Adam Fox

The Rangers signed reigning Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox to a long term extension. They paid a high price but locked up one of the games elite defensemen through his prime. With an elite projected impact, Fox has been outperforming it so far this season. Ryan Lindren hasn’t been as good as projected, however still has a strong impact. Also still entering his prime, Lindgren’s impact is projected to rise over the next few seasons.

Pair 2 – K’Andre Miller / Jacob Trouba

Youngster Miller and veteran Trouba team up on the second pair. Both have projected impacts of 2nd pair defenders this season. With Miller just 21 years old, his impact is projected to rise into top line territory in relatively short order. With Trouba near his peak, the Rangers could be forced into some difficult decisions down the road with 4 years remaining on his deal with an $8M cap hit.

Pair 3 – Patrick Nemeth / Nils Lundqvist

The third pair has struggled this season. Nemeth hasn’t performed up to his projected impact, which is replacement level to begin with. Rookie Nils Lundqvist has also underperformed, with his projection based on the previous season NHLe suggesting he could have a top four impact.

Goaltenders – Igor Shesterkin / Alexander Gorgiev

The Rangers have found their next franchise goaltender in Igor Shesterkin. He’s been outstanding this season and a big reason the Rangers have been able to tread water at 5v5. Alex Gorgiev has been above average as backup. With both goalies only age 25, the Rangers appear to be well set in net for a while.

Top Priorities

2021-2022 Trade Deadline

CapFriendly has the Rangers’ projected deadline cap space over $33M. With that much space, there is no reason not to swing for the fences. We saw the Rangers lacked forward depth, however their top six is held together by a few players with elite impact. Adding to the top 6 and bumping others down into more appropriate roles will help their overall depth and make the top 6 more dangerous.
Acquire a top line right winger. Kappo Kakko is outperforming his projected impact, but isn’t a true top line talent based on projected impact. With Sammy Blais done for the season, this would help shore up depth on the right side for a playoff run as well.
Acquire a center with top line impact to play with Panarin on the second line. It looks like Panarin is carrying the line and that he could provide more offense with stronger linemates. Adding another top line center would bump Strome and Chytil to the bottom six center spots, providing good depth at center.
Acquire a left defenseman for the bottom pair and a right defensemen for the second pair. The upgrade on the left side is the priority. The right side is an possibility if an option with the right price is found.

2022 Offseason

With just $10M in projected cap space for the 22/23 season, the Rangers will have to tread carefully in the 2022 offseason. The good news is they have most of their current lineup locked up for at least next season. The first priority in the 2022 offseason is locking up pending RFAs Kakko, Gauthier and Gorgiev.
Ryan Strome is a pending UFA and may be a cap casualty. Chytil has top six potential and the best option to fill the hole may be to move him up the lineup.
Explore the trade market for Trouba. With an $8M cap hit providing just $3.2M in projected value, Trouba’s contract is not an efficient use of cap space. If the Rangers can find a team willing to take on the contract, it could open up a large chunk of cap space. It’s far from a certainty though, with four years remaining on a deal for player in their late 20s. Trouba also has a no movement clause that kicks in for the 24/25 season, so making a move now provides better long term flexibility for the Rangers.
Consider internal prospects on defense that may be ready to make the jump to the NHL to round out the bottom pair.

2023 Offseason

Re-sign RFAs Lafreniere, Chytil, and Miller.
Acquire a top line winger. Dryden Hunt will be a UFA. Bringing him back can be considered, however, the Rangers should have cap space to look at bringing in an elite talent. Brody Lamb looks like a good bet to become a regular NHLer, however may not be ready for a top 6 assignment.
Assuming Trouba wasn’t moved in the 2022 offseason, explore the trade market again. This is the final season to move him before his no trade clause comes into force. Look for a hockey trade to add a middle six center.
Acquire another top six forward. Consider including an NHL winger in the trade the other way. Player projections suggest the team will be full of capable bottom six wingers.