Armchair GM: Toronto Maple Leafs (Dec 2021)

The Toronto Maple Leafs have become a regular season powerhouse in recent seasons, yet still own the NHL’s second longest drought for a playoff series win. Today, we’ll put ourselves in Kyle Dubas’ chair and put together an Armchair GM plan aimed at breaking that drought.

Current Season Performance

Team Performance

Date: 2021-DEC-08

Record: 18-7-2 (38 Pts), 2nd in the Atlantic

Current Projected P%: 0.634 (104 Pts), 1st in the Atlantic

Season Opening Projected P%: 0.585 (96 Pts), 2nd in the Atlantic

Team Performance:

The Maple Leafs are putting together another strong regular season. They currently sit 2nd in the Atlantic behind the Panthers and lead the Atlantic in the full season projected standings. Their success is built on a strong foundation at even strength, with their 5v5 xGF% ranked 4th in the NHL. They’ve generated offense at a rate that is among the best teams in the league and their poor early season puck luck has rebounded to bring their 5v5 GF/60 to the 75th percentile. Defensively, they are just as good, with 5v5 xGA/60 around the 25th percentile and strong goaltending bringing their actual GA/60 even lower. Special teams have been solid, supporting their even strength results with a strong powerplay and above average penalty kill.

For more plots on the current season performance, see the Toronto Maple Leafs team page.

Current Roster Construction

The Maple Leafs have a well built roster that ranks above average in every category on the roster strength plot. They are defensively capable and offensively potent. Their depth is solid, making them difficult to match up against. While their big three forwards appear to have low value contracts, we need to keep in mind that the value calculation uses only 5v5 impact and that their powerplay impacts will make up a chunk of the gap between value and cap hit. The depth players are nearly universally signed to high value contracts, allowing the Leafs to get $10M more in 5v5 value than they are paying in cap hits for their full strength lineup.

Long Term Outlook

The Leafs current full strength roster is providing a 5v5 value that is $10M higher than their combined cap hit. The picture doesn’t look as rosy as early as next season, but considering much of the current value is gained from high value depth contracts there is reason to believe the Leafs can make good use of their available cap space. With the current core all under contract through at least the 22-23 season, the Leafs will be looking to tinker around the edges over the next couple of years.

The Leafs are in an enviable position with a well stocked prospect cupboard to go along with their current Stanley Cup aspirations. Hockey Prospecting has the Leafs prospect strength ranked 4th in the NHL with 1.68 expected stars and 12.14 expected NHLers in the system. With plenty of prospects pushing for regular NHL jobs, the Leafs can afford to move on from some secondary players should cap hits become too high.

Objective

Status:

Contending

Re-tooling

Re-building

Re-stocking

Target Contention Window:

Now

Comments:

With a strong NHL roster and a well stocked prospect cupboard, the Maple Leafs contention window is wide open. They should be looking to add at the trade deadline to prepare for a deep playoff run, with picks and prospects going the other way. Looking further ahead, their prospect pool can be used to backfill holes in the lineup due to expiring veteran contracts to keep their roster full of high value contracts.

Current Lineup

Let’s take a look a the current lineup. Current season performance is provided for comparison with 21/22 season projections. The long term impact projections are also provided for long term considerations. Lines are provided as a reference for likely combinations at full strength, but it’s expected that the lineup will be shuffled on a regular basis by the head coach.

Line 1 – Michael Bunting / Austin Matthews / Mitch Marner

The Leafs had a well documented slow start this season. A lack of even strength offense from their stars was a big part of it, largely due to some poor puck luck. Production for Austin Matthews and Mitch Marner has been trending upward with percentages trending toward a long term average and their defensive impacts have been strong this season as well. Matthews and Marner look like top line staples through the end of their current contracts in 23/24 and 24/25, respectively. Michael Bunting seems to have earned a regular spot riding shotgun on the top line, although his projected impacts are significantly lower. Bunting is signed through 22/23 and should provide good value for the Leafs even if he gets bumped down the lineup.

Line 2 – Ilya Mikheyev / John Tavares / William Nylander

We haven’t seen this line in action this season, with Ilya Mikheyev suffering an injury during preseason that has kept him sidelined to start the season. Mikheyev is nearing a return and should provide a boost to the top six with a 2nd line projected impact. John Tavares is off to a good start offensively, although his defensive impact could be better this season. William Nylander got off to a hot start and has piled up primary points so far this season. Nylander and Tavares are signed through the 23/24 and 25/26 seasons, respectively, while Mikheyev is a pending UFA. With a current cap hit of $1.645M, Mikheyev could be looking for a raise if he has a strong season and he may become a cap casualty in Toronto.

Line 3 – Alex Kerfoot / David Kampf / Ondrej Kase

The third line of Alex Kerfoot, David Kampf and Ondrej Kase has a wide variety of projected impacts. Kerfoot is having a strong year, spending most of his time in the top six with the injury to Mikheyev. Kampf has excelled in a defensive role and has chipped in offensively as well. Kase is off to a hot start offensively, although defensively he could be stronger. Kerfoot and Kampf both have one year remaining on their deals following this season, while Kase is a pending RFA.

Line 4 – Nick Ritchie / Pierre Engvall / Jason Spezza

Jason Spezza is the elder statesman on the fourth line and he brings a strong 5v5 impact. In his late 30s and on a one year deal, the Leafs have left flexibility on how long Spezza remains a regular contributor. Nick Ritchie is signed through the 22/23 season and has struggled to live up to his 2nd line projection this season. Shooting 2.7% on the season, it’s a reasonable bet that Ritchie has been a victim of bad puck luck this season and we can expect an offensive rebound in the longer term. Pierre Engvall is a pending RFA. He’s been defensively sound this season with a limited offensive impact.

Pair 1 – Morgan Reilly / TJ Brodie

The top pair of Morgan Reilly and TJ Brodie has played well this season, with both players outperforming their projected offensive impacts. Defensively, they’ve been average. Reilly should remain a staple for the next few years with a contract extension kicking in next season, however Brodie’s impact may start to wane as he gets into his 30s. With 2 more seasons on his deal at a $5M cap hit, Brodie may be a player the Leafs could benefit from moving before his contract is up.

Pair 2 – Jake Muzzin / Justin Holl

Jake Muzzin has performed slightly below projections both offensively and defensively so far this season, while Justin Holl has struggled. Muzzin is in his 30s and we can expect a declining impact. Signed through the 23/24 season, the Leafs hope the decline is modest. Holl has had a rough year after a breakout season. At age 29 with one more season on his deal, the Leafs need to consider their options.

Pair 3 – Travis Dermott / Rasmus Sandin

Travis Dermott and Rasmus Sandin slot in for the third pair. Both players have been strong in their roles this season, particularly Sandin. His defensive impact has been outstanding and he is chipping in offensively. With a long term projection that looks like an elite defensemen, Sandin looks like an option to eventually move into the top four. Dermott’s long term projection is also top four quality.

Goaltenders – Petr Mrazek / Jack Campbell

Jack Campbell is the only Leafs goaltender to reach 200 minutes at 5v5 this season, due to Mrazek’s injury early in the season. Both goaltenders have strong projections this season and provide the Leafs with a solid tandem. Longer term there are some question marks. One is whether Campbell can continue his strong play after a breakout season last year in his late 20s.

Top Priorities

2021-2022 Trade Deadline

With cap space limiting options, the Leafs should look for quality depth additions at the deadline that fit within their available cap space. A high end winger for the top line would be an excellent addition if they can make the cap work. Otherwise, adding depth on forward and/or defense could give them a small boost heading into the playoffs.

2022 Offseason

Acquire a top line left winger. Ilya Mikheyev will be a UFA, leaving at least one opening in the top six. A second acquisition would be ideal, allowing the Michael Bunting to move to the bottom six. Re-signing Mikheyev can be considered depending on the cap hit, but options for an upgrade should be explored. It’s also possible a prospect is ready to make the jump, with Nick Robertson the most likely option.
If Rasmus Sandin continues his strong play through the rest of the season, it may be time to give him a shot in the top four next season. That would mean replacing either Brodie or Holl and the Leafs could explore a trade for either that would provide the opportunity for Sandin and clear some cap space. Sandin is a pending RFA and the Leafs may want to use some of that cap space on a long term extension for him. Based on Holl’s rough start this season, he is the first choice to move.
Jack Campbell is a pending UFA. If the cap hit is reasonable, his play over the past two seasons has certainly earned him a spot in the lineup. However, with Mrazek under contract for two more seasons at $3.8M, the Leafs need to keep their goaltender costs under control and may need to explore other options.

2023 Offseason

The Leafs have significantly more cap space available in the 2023 offseason with some moderate size cap hits coming off the books. If they aren’t successful adding a top line winger before the 2023 offseason, they should be able to take a serious swing for one then.
Get younger on defense. Sandin is likely to be in the top four by this time and Timothy Liljegren may also be capable. Assuming Holl was moved previously, as per the 2022 offseason objectives, the Leafs should explore moving either TJ Brodie or Jake Muzzin. They will both be in the final year of their deals and in their early 30s. Trading them now may be the best way to maximize long term value and open up positions in the top four for the emerging prospects.
Find high value deals to fill holes in the bottom of the forward lineup. Bringing back current players is certainly an option, provided the price is right. However, the team should not hesitate in moving on if the price is too high.