Yesterday, I did a deep dive into the Calgary Flames in my first armchair GM post. Today, I’m looking at the early returns on their big free agent signing from the 2021 offseason. Following back-to-back Stanley Cup victories with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Blake Coleman hit the UFA market and the Flames brought him to Calgary in an attempt to fill their seemingly perpetual hole at right wing.
The Contract
Date: July 28, 2021
Signed by Calgary Flames:
- Blake Coleman (age 29): 6 year, $4.9M cap hit, Years 4-6 M-NTC – 10 team trade list)
Projected Value:
Coleman was a staple on the Lightning’s third line and was relied on in a shutdown role as they won back-to-back Stanley Cups. His defensively responsible style of play seems like a good match with Flames head coach Darryl Sutter. Offensively, he isn’t going to be a primary producer but he is capable of chipping in as he’s eclipsed the 30 point mark in each of the past three seasons and had 20 goals in two of those seasons. Considering both offensive and defensive impacts, Coleman’s overall projected impact for the 21/22 season is a top line forward. Based only on 5v5 impacts, his projected impact puts his value at $4.95M for the 21/22 season. At age 29, we’ll likely see that impact and corresponding value decline over the course of the deal but he should remain a top 6 contributor throughout.
2021-2022 Performance
Calgary Flames – Blake Coleman
Coleman is off to a good start with the Flames. He’s fit in well with Darryl Sutter’s system and has a 5v5 on-ice xGA/60 that ranks among the best in the NHL and sits well below his projected impact. Offensively, is on-ice GF/60 is below his projection but still sits near the league median. He’s picking up primary assists at a rate greater than projected at 5v5, however he’s scoring at a lower rate than projected. Coleman’s shooting percentage so far this season is the lowest it’s been since his rookie season and it would not be a surprise to see it trend upward over the course of the season. Coleman has also featured at a key penalty killing forward, helping the Flames to one of the best penalty kills in the NHL through the first quarter of the season.
Team Performance – Calgary Flames
The Flames are off to a hot start after the first quarter of the 21/22 season. The model projected a borderline playoff team and they have overperformed it so far to sit in a tight battle atop the Pacific with the rival Oilers. Defensively, the Flames have bought into Darryl Sutter’s system and Coleman’s strong defensive numbers are a microcosm of the team. The Flames have a 5v5 xGA/60 that is near the 25th percentile in the NHL and outstanding goaltending has helped to further improve their 5v5 GA/60. Offensively, they are outperforming projections at 5v5, where they sit just above the 75th percentile in 5v5 GF/60.
The Verdict
Based on the early returns, the Flames are getting good value from Coleman through the first quarter of the 21/22 season. His contract looked like fair value and his impact through his first 19 games in Flames threads looks better than projected. His defensive impact has been stellar and his offensive impact has been decent alongside it. There are signs that his goal scoring may pick up over the course of the season and the Flames are off to their best start to a regular season in a very long time.
We’re only at the quarter mark of the first season in a six year deal, so there ‘s plenty of time for the results of this signing to evolve and I’ll check in on it again in the future. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this deal and others, trade check-ins, armchair GM plans and other updates from around the NHL.
