Armchair GM: Calgary Flames (Nov 2021)

This is the first post in my Armchair GM series, where I’ll lay out the state of the current team and a possible path forward for one of the teams in the NHL. Let’s take a look at the Calgary Flames.

Current Season Record

Record:

12-3-5 (29Pts), 1st in the Pacific

Projected Regular Season Result:

1st in the Pacific

Team Performance:

The Flames are outperforming their projection at the quarter mark of the season and they are doing it with solid underlying numbers. They lead the league in 5v5 GF%, and sit 5th and 3rd in xGF% and CF% at 5v5 as well. Their team shooting percentage is 14th in the NHL at 5v5 and doesn’t look like a risk for regression. Goaltending has been outstanding with 7 shutouts just 20 games into the season and the top 5v5 save percentage percentage in the NHL and is the area where the Flames look like they have had some percentage luck on their side.

For more plots on the Flames current season performance, see the Calgary Flames team page.

Current Roster

The Flames current roster sports a relatively deep forward group, a young defense corps, and a solid goaltending tandem. The top six forward group doesn’t boast as much game breaking talent as some other contending teams, but it is full of very capable top six forwards. The bottom six ranks strongly against the league benchmarks, showing good depth. The defense corps is marginal relative to the league benchmarks, however is young with room to develop. The goaltending tandem is strong with proven veteran Jacob Markstrom backed up by Dan Vladar.

For more plots on the Flames current roster and projected player impacts, see the Calgary Flames team page.

Long Term Outlook

The Flames have some key players that are pending free agents heading toward the 2022 offseason. Johnny Gaudreau is a pending UFA, while Matthew Tkachuk, Andrew Mangiapane, and Oliver Kylington will be RFAs next summer. Calgary has $30M in projected cap space for the 2022-2023 season and re-signing all four would eat up a large chunk of that. The Flames will need to manage the cap carefully for the next couple of seasons and have a lot more flexibility starting in the 24/25 season.

The Flames have a strong prospect system, headlined by Connor Zary and Matthew Coronato. Hockey Prospecting has the Flames prospect strength ranked 6th in the NHL with 1.7 expected stars and 9.07 expected NHLers in the system.

Objective

Status:

Contending

Re-tooling

Re-building

Re-stocking

Target Contention Window:

Now

Comments:

The Flames didn’t bring in head coach Darryl Sutter to start a re-build. They are in win now mode and all signs indicate the team has bought into Sutter’s plan. The team should be looking to upgrade their current roster for a playoff run, using future assets as trade chips. The Flames have some promising core pieces that are under 25, so they should also consider the future impact of transactions since there is ample opportunity to keep the contention window open for some time.

Target 2021/22 Postseason Lineup

Target 2026/27 Lineup

Top Priorities

Trade for a top pairing right defenseman on an expiring contract prior to the 2021/22 trade deadline. While the top four have performed well so far this season, the Flames weakest area is the defense based on projected impacts. Noah Hanifin is the Flames best defensemen and he looks like a bona fide #1D for the future, but his projected impact this season is just above the top pair benchmark. Adding a top flight defensemen would not only upgrade the top pair, but would bump one of the Flames current top 4 d-men to the bottom pair to solidify their overall depth depth.

Trade for third line winger ahead of the 2021/22 trade deadline. The Flames top line has been outstanding through the early season and the second line has been finding chemistry of late. Despite the strong ranking of the Flames bottom six, it hasn’t found as much success thus far. Dillon Dube has struggled defensively and the roster seems to be full of 4th line wingers. An upgrade to the third line could be a boon for playoff depth. There are likely teams that would be interested in Dube’s upside and he could be even included in a trade provided a player with higher 21/22 season impact was included the other way.

Extend Johnny Gaudreau as soon as possible. Gaudreau is the Flames best forward and is excelling at a 200 foot game under Darryl Sutter. Watching him walk in free agency next summer would leave a hole in the top six that would be difficult to fill.

Trade Sean Monahan to free up 22/23 cap space. Likely easier in the offseason, Monahan has one year remaining on his deal after this season with a $6.375 cap hit. His projected impact is a borderline top line forward, but he’s struggled to find that form again this year after offseason hip surgery. A modified no-trade clause (10 team no trade list) makes this more difficult, but the Flames would benefit from freeing up this cap space and redeploying it more efficiently.