Dougie Hamilton was the premiere unrestricted free agent available in the 2021 offseason. The New Jersey Devils had piles of available cap space and looked to Hamilton as a piece that could help them turn the corner with their rebuild. With a small sample of games played in his new threads, let’s take an early look at the results of the signing.
The Contract
Date: July 28, 2021
Signed by New Jersey Devils:
- Dougie Hamilton (age 28): 7 year, $9M cap hit, NMC, M-NTC final 3 seasons)
2021-2022 Performance
New Jersey Devils – Dougie Hamilton
Dougie Hamilton is one of the elite defensemen in the NHL. His projected impact for the 21/22 season is well above the benchmark for a top pair defenseman and the Devils paid accordingly for his services. His projected value is around the $6M mark, however we need to keep in mind that the value calculation we are currently looking at uses solely 5v5 impacts. Hamilton also features heavily on the powerplay, as well as contributing to the Devils penalty kill so it’s reasonable to expect he makes up the gap between our value calculation and his cap hit on special teams. Looking at some of the other top defensemen around the league, Hamilton’s value is comparable Cale Makar and Adam Fox. The cap hit seems quite reasonable given the premium often required to sign high profile free agents and his projected impact for 21/22. The danger is the length of the contract. Hamilton will be 35 at the end of the deal and we’ll likely see some declining performance in the later years of the contract.
Hamilton missed a few games with a minor injury and has played in 13 of the Devils’ first 16 games. We are still looking at quite a small sample size, however early returns have been excellent. Hamilton is one of the elite goal scoring defensemen in the league and he’s off to a good start this season. He sits a close second in 5v5 G/60, behind noted sniper Derek Forbort. While Forbort is shooting 25%, Hamilton’s shooting percentage is closer to a sustainable level at 10%. Average shooting percentage for defensemen is around 4%, while Hamilton’s historical numbers sit in the 5-7% range. His on-ice 5v5 GF/60 is also among the best in the league and sits above his projection. Defensively, Hamilton has been closer average at 5v5, where his 5v5 xGA/60 sits slightly above his projection. Hamilton has also featured prominently on special teams, with 1 goal and 3 assists in 33 minutes of powerplay time and a 5.64 on-ice xGA/60 in 13 minutes of 4v5 penalty kill.
Team Performance – New Jersey Devils
At full strength, the Devils projected strength is a 0.570 point percentage which is right at the historical cut-off for the playoffs in recent seasons. The Devils have 19 points through their first 16 games, good for a 0.594 P%. Generally, New Jersey is performing near their projections across key statistics. Even strength defense is the biggest concern, with their xGA/60 sitting at the 75th percentile, but their performance generally looks sustainable.
The Verdict
Based on the early returns, the Devils are getting good value from the Dougie Hamilton signing. While they paid a bit of a premium, that’s expected for elite talents. Hamilton has been excellent to start the season, performing slightly above a projection that was already elite. The Devils are also off to a good start as a team, so it appears they may be turning a corner and paying for an elite talent was a worthwhile venture.
We’re not even at the quarter mark of season one for a seven year deal, so there ‘s plenty of time for the results of this signing to evolve and I’ll check in on it again in the future. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this deal and others, trade check-ins, and other updates from around the NHL.
