We’re now far enough into the season that we’re starting to the see the true strength of most teams. The bubble has burst on some teams who got off to hot starts, while others who started slow relative to expectations have started picking up points. Let’s take a look at the past week around the league.
Pacific Division
There wasn’t a lot of change to the full season projected standings in the Pacific Division this week. Both Alberta teams cooled off after their scorching hot starts, with the Oilers going 2-2-0 and the Flames going 1-1-2 this week. They continue to lead the division projections along with the Sharks, who have managed to hang in through a tough Covid outbreak. The Ducks are the biggest upward movers, as they continue to string wins together. Their active winning streak is now at 8 games. The Kings have also been playing well, putting together their own 7 game winning streak that was snapped in their last outing. The Canucks had a rough week, going 0-3-0 as part of an active 4 game losing streak that has their full season projection falling to the bottom of the division and Canucks fans calling for change.
Team Spotlight – Los Angeles Kings
The Los Angeles Kings have been on a roll of late, with the Winnipeg Jets snapping their 7 game win streak in their last outing. The Kings rank 2nd the league in 5v5 GA/60, largely due to the strong play of their goaltenders. While allowing 2.44 xGA/60 at 5v5, the Kings have only allowed 1.58 GA/60. The Kings offense has been good enough to win games with their stellar goaltending but may not be enough if their goaltending cools off as they rank in the middle third of the league for both xGF/60 and GF/60 at 5v5. With Sean Walker done for the season and Drew Doughty on the shelf, Alex Edler and Olli Matta have seen increased roles and lead the defense in 5v5 P/60.
Player Spotlight – Timo Meier
Timo Meier is off to a great start to the season in San Jose. His 5v5 offensive production has been well above projections and he currently leads the NHL in 5v5 points per 60. He’s done it while putting up decent defensive impacts as well as he sits near the league median for on-ice 5v5 xGA/60.
Central Division
The full season projected standings in the Central Division saw some change over the past week. The Wild stay at the top, but they have company in the form of the Avalanche. The Avs went 2-0-0 this week and have quietly pulled near the top of the division projections despite their early season injury woes. The Jets and Predators have been rising as well, with an active 4 game point streak for the Jets and a 5 game point streak coming to an end for the Preds earlier this week. The Blues tumbled down the projected standings with a rough week, going 0-3-1.
Team Spotlight – Colorado Avalanche
The Colorado Avalanche got off to a slow start by their standards but have quietly been creeping up the standings recently. Riddled with injuries to key players to start the year, it looked like they were finally healthy when Nathan MacKinnon went down with an injury that will keep him out of the lineup for about 3 weeks. Even with their injury troubles, the Avs have the 6th best 5v5 GF/60 in the league and it looks fairly sustainable. With injuries an early season factor, it’s been Gabriel Landeskog and Nazen Kadri pacing the 5v5 offense. Goaltending has been holding them back so far. While their 5v5 xGA/60 is 5th in the league, their 5v5 GA/60 is 26th.
Player Spotlight – Jon Merrill
Offseason free agent signing Jon Merrill is off to a good start in Minnesota. Brought in for his defensive impact, he’s been as advertised in that respect with a 5v5 on-ice xGA/60 below the 25th percentile among defensemen. As an added bonus, he’s been finding the score sheet as well with offensive production exceeding projections.
Atlantic Division
We’re starting to see some separation in the Atlantic Division full season projections between the contenders and the rebuilding teams. The Maple Leafs early run of bad luck seems to be over and they’ve now won 9 of their last 10 and have an active 4 game winning streak to bring them to the top of the projected standings. The Lightning have also heated up after a slow start by their standards and have an active 8 game point streak. The Panthers saw their season opening 11 game point streak come crashing to an end with a pair of losses, including a 7-3 drubbing at the hands of the Devils. However, they seem to have righted the ship quickly and have points in their last 3 games. The Canadiens continue to struggle and sit well back of the leaders with a trio of rebuilding teams. The Red Wings lead the group in the projections and, while they’ve fallen off their early season pace, they look like they may have turned the corner on their rebuild.
Team Spotlight – Detroit Red Wings
The bubble may have burst on the Red Wings impressive start to the season, but there is plenty of reason for optimism in Detroit. The Wings are 5th in the NHL for 5v5 xGF/60, although the have suffered from poor finishing so far this season. Their defense needs to improve, currently ranked in the bottom five in the league for 5v5 xGA/60, but it may simply be a symptom of a rebuilding team. The future looks bright and Detroit’s rookies are getting noticed early in the season, with Lucas Raymond sitting third among Red Wings forwards in 5v5 P/60 and Moritz Seider leading the Wings defensemen in 5v5 xGA/60.
Player Spotlight – Aaron Ekblad
After suffering a season ending injury last season, Aaron Ekblad is back patrolling the Panthers’ blueline alongside Mackenzie Weegar. Ekblad has looked good early in the season, with solid defensive impacts and better than projected offensive impacts. With his 5v5 G/60 buoyed by a 14% shooting percentage, we’ll likely see his goal production drop over the full season, however the rest of his play looks sustainable.
Metropolitan Division
The Metropolitan Division continues to be the strongest division from top to bottom. We did see some separation starting to happen this week, however. The Capitals lead the full season projections and have an active 5 game point streak. The Rangers righted the ship after a rough trip to Alberta and now have an active 4 game win streak that’s helped them keep pace with the Caps. At the other end of the spectrum, the Penguins and Islanders have started to fall off the pace. The Islanders have dropped to the bottom of the full season projections and currently have a 4 game losing streak on their hands. With their new building set to open this weekend, the Isles will finally play their first home game of the season on Saturday and we’ll see if home cooking can help turn the tide on their season.
Team Spotlight – Pittsburgh Penguins
The Pittsburgh Penguins weathered early season injuries to stars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, alonside a significant Covid outbreak that saw much of the lineup take a stint on the sidelines. They’ve managed to produce offense at a good rate through it as they sit 11th in the NHL in 5v5 GF/60, with Jake Guentzel and Kasperi Kapanen leading Pens forwards in 5v5 G/60. They’ve been sound defensively, sitting 8th in the league in 5v5 xGA/60. However, their 5v5 GA/60 is over half a goal per 60, ranking them 22nd in the league. Tristan Jarry has been slightly better than projected, while Casey DeSmith has had a rough start to the season. The Pens will need better results from their tandem to keep pace in a tight Metropolitan Division.
Player Spotlight – Alex Ovechkin
Alex Ovechkin seems intent on catching Wayne Gretzky as the all-time NHL goal scoring leader. He’s blowing offensive projections out the water at age 36 and is a big part of the Capitals early success this season. While we won’t likely see him keep up his 20% 5v5 shooting percentage all season, he hasn’t been below 12% over a full season since 2016-2017.
Complete Regular Season Projections
For a full set of updated roster plots and in-season tracking, see the 2021-2022 Season Projections page. Also, subscribe to catch more regular season briefings and league wide updates throughout the season.
