The Nashville Predators were certainly not a consensus pick as a favorite in the Central Division this season. Yet the Preds are hanging with the division leaders and seem intent on making some noise. Let’s take a look at their early season results to see how they’ve done it and assess whether it’s sustainable.
Grades
Comments
Record
The Predators have 17 points through their first 14 games, which is good enough to put them in the mix atop the Central Division. They are performing somewhat above their projected strength to this point, although it’s been strong recent results that have gotten them there following a slow start. It’s certainly looks as though Nashville is in the mix for a wildcard spot based on the full season projections.
Even Strength Offense
The Predators even strength offense has been the weakest area of their game so far this season. They weren’t projected to score at a high rate to begin with and their current results fall below projections. Their 5v5 goals for rate ranks 21st in the league. The Preds don’t seem to be suffering from poor percentage luck, as their expected goals rate is quite similar to their actual numbers. To continue to hang with the division leaders, Nashville needs to find a way to create more scoring chances at even strength.
Filip Forsberg had the highest projected impact among Predators forwards coming into the season and he is off to a good start with his 5v5 points/60 sitting near his projection. Matt Duchene seems rejuvenated to start the season and has been another offensive driver for the Predators. The top six forward group is generally performing well relative to expectations. The bottom six, on the other hand, has struggled to find offense so far. Alex Carrier has been solid on the blue line, leading the Predators defensemen in 5v5 offensive output.
Even Strength Defense
The Predators even strength defense has been sound to start the season. They rank 12th in the league in 5v5 GA/60, with actual rates well below their projection. Team defense and goaltending have had equal hands in the success, with their expected goals rate sitting 11th in the league and solid goaltending keeping their actual goals rate even lower.
Defensively, Alex Carrier and Roman Josi are leading the way on the blue line with the best on-ice xGA/60 numbers. However, the entire defense core has been very consistent xGA/60 throughout. Mattias Ekholm has the highest expected goals against rate and it sits just slightly above the league median. Among forwards, Filip Forsberg and Matt Duchene are also leading the defensive effort. Similar to the defensemen, the forwards are generally sitting below the league median.
Following Pekka Rinne’s retirement this offseason, Jusse Saros became the undisputed number one goaltender in Nashville. He’s been strong through the early season and is a factor is Nashville’s success so far. David Rittich spent some time on the Covid list, but has recently returned to action with a strong showing in his first outing.
Powerplay
The powerplay has been a critical source of offense for the Predators so far this season. While their 5v5 offense hasn’t generated a lot, their powerplay sits 10th in the NHL for both 5v4 GF/60 and 5v4 xGF/60. If they can keep it rolling, the powerplay should help the Preds win games as the season progresses.
Penalty Kill
The Predators penalty kill has been good enough not be a big liability. They rank in the top 10 for 4v5 xGA/60, however they haven’t gotten the saves thus far and rank 22nd in 4v5 GA/60. Given the strong showing for Nashville’s goaltenders at even strength, it seems likely this is some early percentage luck with a small sample. If the Preds can continue to keep chances low, they’ll likely find success on the penalty kill over the full season.
Lineup Notes
The Predators lost star forward Filip Forsberg to an upper body injury in their game against the Flames on November 2 and he’s listed as week-to-week. It’s a big loss for Nashville’s top six forward group, with Forsberg’s projected impact the highest among Predators forwards. Their top line strength takes a hit with Forsberg out, but their depth fills in relatively well further down the lineup. With Forsberg out, it’s even more critical that the Predators find some offense from their depth forwards.
Up Next
- vs ARI
- @ TOR
- @ OTT
- @ MTL
- vs ANA
Season Projections
Check out the roster plots and player impact projections for the Predators and the rest of the Central Division here and subscribe to follow more updates for the Predators and from around the league throughout the season.
