The Florida Panthers are the last remaining team without a regulation loss in the 21/22 season after they downed the Carolina Hurricanes on Saturday. Are the Panthers the new beast of the east? Let’s take a look at their early season results and compare to my full season projections.
Grades
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Record
With a 10-0-1 record, the Panthers are the last remaining team without a regulation loss this season. Their hot start has put the Eastern Conference on notice. It’s given them the early lead in the Atlantic Division with other preseason favorites, like the Maple Leafs and Lightning, struggling out of the gate. The Panthers aren’t likely to continue at a 0.955 P% pace the rest of the season, but they’ve put themselves in the mix for the division title if they can perform near their projected roster strength the rest of the way.
Even Strength Offense
The Panthers have been scoring at over 3 GF/50 at 5v5, good for 2nd in the league. However, there are some signs that it a bit of a façade. Their expected goals for rate is nearly 0.7 G/60 lower, ranking them 13th in the league in expected goals for rate. With such a large gap between actual and expected goals, the Panthers are likely benefitting from some finishing luck to start the season.
The Panthers top six forward group looked like one of the best in the league heading into the season, and they haven’t disappointed so far. Alexander Barkov continues to drive the team offensively, while Sam Bennett has continued his hot play that starting following his trade to Florida last season. Anthony Duclair has also been on a goal scoring tear to start the season. On defense, Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling have had hot starts offensively. While it’s likely a number of Florida’s skaters will eventually cool off to some extent, there are plenty of things going right in the early season.
Even Strength Defense
As with the Panthers offense, their 5v5 defense appears to be benefitting from some finishing luck in favor of the goaltenders early in the season. Their defense has allowed expected goals against at a rate that puts them in the bottom third of the league, yet strong goaltending has allowed them to sit in the top 10 in actual goals against rate. Similar to the offense, it’s likely the gap between expected and actual goal rates will lessen as the season goes on and the Panthers could benefit from improving their team defense.
A number of the Panthers young forwards show up on expected goals against plots. Owen Tippett and Anton Lundell are among the highest expected goals against rates on the team, along with some of the Panthers established top six forwards. On the flip side, Mason Marchment is off to a good start defensively, as he sits in the top 5 best xGA/60 among Panthers forwards. On defense, the top pair of Aaron Ekblad and Mackenzie Weegar leads the way with strong defensive impacts. While Forsling has had a strong start to the season offensively, his defensive impact has been less impressive with the highest xGA/60 among Panthers D-men.
In goal, Sergei Bobrovsky seems to had re-gained the form that the Panthers expected when they signed him as a free agent. He’s been solid through the early part of the season and is a big reason the Panthers are off to a hot start. Spencer Knight hasn’t been as strong as Bobrovsky, but he’s bee good enough to keep his team in games.
Powerplay
The Panthers powerplay has found success in the early season, sitting 7th in the NHL in 5v4 GF/60. However, their 5v4 xGF/60 is much lower, ranking 27th in the league, which suggests the Panthers have benefitted from some percentage luck here as well.
Penalty Kill
The penalty kill is the area where the Panthers’ results don’t appear to have large impacts from percentage luck so far. Their 4v5 GA/60 and 4v5 xGA/60 rank near the middle of the league. The penalty kill has been average, which has been good enough so far.
Lineup Notes
The Panthers have dealt with injuries to the bottom half of the lineup through the early part of the season, however their depth may be tested in a larger capacity over the next handful of games due to injuries to more impactful players. Alexander Barkov, Sam Bennett and Sergei Bobrovsky all missed Saturday’s showdown with the Hurricanes and timelines for their returns to the lineup are still unclear. Barkov is an elite forward and he’s been off to a good start in the 21/22 season. Bennett’s projected impact is a second line forward and he has been outperforming the projection so far this season. Bobrovsky has been excellent in net and the Panthers will lean on young Spencer Knight if Bobrovsky is out for any length of time.
Up Next
- @ NYR
- @ NJD
- @ PIT
- @ TBL
- vs NYI
Season Projections
Check out the roster plots and player impact projections for the Panthers and the rest of the Atlantic Division here and subscribe to follow more updates for the Panthers and from around the league throughout the season.
