All is not well in Leaf-land. After a crushing first round exit last spring at the hands of the rival Canadiens, the supposed contender Toronto Maple Leafs have stumbled out of the gate in the 2021-2022 season. But are things really as bad as their early season record? Let’s take a deeper look.
Grades
Comments
Record
Expectations were high for the Leafs heading into the season and a 3-4-1 record out of the gate is certainly a disappointing start to the season. With the Bruins the heavy favorites in the Atlantic Division based on the projected strength from the model, there was a group of five teams grouped tightly in the battle for second. The Leafs start hasn’t been great, but it has been good enough to keep their full season projection close to the other potential playoff teams. While the Panthers have pulled themselves ahead of the pack and the Canadiens have dropped off, the Maple Leafs, Lightning and Red Wings remain in a tight group with their full season projections near the historical playoff cut-off.
Even Strength Offense
The Leafs even strength offense has been snake bitten to start the season. Generating only 1.89 goals/60, Toronto’s offense has been much worse than advertised to open the season. Yet there are signs it will turn around. While their actual goals scored rate is ranked near the bottom of the league, their expected goals for rate is the best in the NHL. Indications are that the Leafs have been struck by some very poor percentage luck early in the season and it’s only a matter of time before their offense heats up.
Looking at the individual player results, we see a similar pattern. Wayne Simmonds and Michael Bunting are leading the Maple Leafs’ 5v5 offense with the highest points/60 among forwards. Meanwhile, the Leafs stars are producing well under their projected rates. Mitch Marner and Austin Matthews lead the way in this regard, generating less than half of their projected points/60 so far this season. The Leafs need their superstars to heat up, but it seems like a matter of when, not if, it will happen. To make matters worse, Toronto is also still waiting for their first 5v5 goal from a defenseman.
Even Strength Defense
The Maple Leafs defense has been suspect in the early season, which hasn’t helped their plight given their slow start offensively. Their expected goals against rate is higher than projected and ranks in the bottom third of the league. Goaltending has been unable to bail them out so far and the result is an actual goals against rate that also ranks in the bottom third of the league.
The most notable trend in the Leafs skaters’ defensive numbers is with their defensemen. The top 3 defensemen for highest expected goals against rate are three of their top four defensmen, in Justin Holl, TJ Brodie, and Morgan Reilly. On the flip side, prospects Timothy Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin have the lowest expected goals against rates. While quality of competition is likely playing a role, Toronto needs it’s top four defensemen to be better. With Liljegren and Sandin also off to good starts offensively, perhaps shuffling the defensive pairs could give the Leafs a boost.
Goaltending has been adequate for the Maple Leafs through the early season. An injury to Petr Mrazek has left Jack Campbell once again tending twine in Toronto as the regular starter. His goals saved above expected is slightly better than projected and the result has been good, but not great, goaltending.
Powerplay
The Maple Leafs have suffered a similar plight on the powerplay as they have at even strength. While generating expected goals at a rate that is top 5 league wide, they have only been rewarded with goals at a rate that is in the bottom third league wide. Poor percentage luck seems to have hit them here as well and it’s likely only a matter of time until the goals start coming.
Penalty Kill
Toronto’s penalty kill has been very average so far this season. Expected goals against rate sits in the middle of the league rankings. Actual goals against rate sits in the middle of the league rankings. It’s not spectacular. It’s not terrible. It’s average.
Lineup Notes
Ilya Mikheyev was injured in the late stages of the preseason and he is expected to be out for about 8 weeks with a broken thumb. The loss of Mikheyev hurt the Leafs’ top six slightly and getting him back in early December should give the Leafs’ offense a boost.
Season Projections
Check out the roster plots and player impact projections for the Maple Leafs and the rest of the Atlantic Division here and subscribe to follow more updates for the Maple Leafs and from around the league throughout the season.
