With the NHL trade deadline now less than 3 weeks away, I’m taking a look at the needs of the potential buyer teams and identifying some of the likely candidates to be rental players on teams likely to be selling.
The Central Division includes both Stanley Cup finalists from last season, along with a couple of teams that having good seasons that have some cap space to work with to make a move at the deadline.
As the standing sit after games March 23, the defending champion Lightning are trying to hold off the Hurricanes and Panthers for the division title. The Blackhawks hold on to the final playoff position with the Blue Jackets close behind.
We’ll take a look at each team’s needs in order of the current standings. We’ll use player data from Natural Stat Trick and salary cap data from CapFriendly for our analysis. Player usage charts for each team based only on this season’s data will provide insight on their strengths and weaknesses and we’ll limit our analysis to players who have played over 100 minutes this season.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Projected Cap Space: $0
The Lightning haven’t suffered from a cup hangover. They lead the division with a .781 points percentage. However, they are up against the cap. Yesterday’s trade with Anahiem, sending Volkov to the Ducks to clear cap space, is a sign of just how little room they have.
What’s gone right: The Lightning continue to dominate with scoring throughout their lineup. In my analysis of last season’s championship team, we saw that they had strong xGF% throughout the lineup and that trend continues this season.
Areas for improvement: Nikita Kucherov is on track for a return in time for the playoffs which will give the Lightning’s attack a boost without making a trade. Unlike last season, they have a few depth forwards that have xGF% less than 50%.
Trade targets: Depth forward
Carolina Hurricanes
Projected Cap Space: $2,349,416
The Hurricanes are having another strong regular season. Unlike many teams this year, they have some cap space available to consider adding a more significant piece to their roster before the deadline.
What’s gone right: The Canes are generally controlling play throughout the lineup and are getting scoring through the lineup as well. Brett Pesce is having a strong season in a defensive role, while also contributing offensively.
Areas for improvement: With the team’s depth already contributing, the Hurricanes could look to at a high-end forward with their available cap space.
Trade targets: Top line forward
Florida Panthers
Projected Cap Space: $3,509,940
The Panthers have stormed onto the scene this year. They’ll look to overtake the Hurricanes and give the Lightning a run for the top spot down the stretch. Like the Canes, they have significant cap space available to make a move at the deadline.
What’s gone right: Alexander Barkov and Carter Verhaeghe are having very strong campaigns and are pacing the Panther’s attack. They are getting some help as well, with good secondary scoring from the middle of the lineup.
Areas for improvement: We see a significant drop in production at the bottom of the Panther’s lineup so depth may become an issue if the Panthers sustain a few injuries at playoff time. The Panthers could consider bringing in a big name player with their available cap space.
Trade targets: Depth forward, top 4 defenseman, top 6 forward
Chicago Blackhawks
Projected Cap Space: $0
The Blackhawks have surprised many this season with their strong first half after declaring they were in a rebuild in the offseason. They sit in the last playoff spot, well back of 3rd and will try to hang on down the stretch. With no projected cap space, their options at the deadline will be limited.
What’s gone right: Alex DeBrincat looks like a promising young player and Patrick Kane is having a strong offensive season. Kevin Lankinen is having a good rookie season in net.
Areas for improvement: Most of the Blackhawks skaters are being out chanced while they are on the ice. This could catch up to them down the stretch. Secondary scoring could also be improved.
Trade targets: depth forward, depth defenseman
Columbus Blue Jackets
Projected Cap Space: $1,756,348
The Blue Jackets sit just outside the playoff picture. Their early returns on their Dubois for Laine/Roslovic trade haven’t been as good as hoped and they may not be done dealing. With nearly $2M in cap space, they have room to maneuver.
What’s gone right: Zack Werenski is having another strong season and his strong xGF% stands out relative to the rest of the team. Jack Roslovic has provided offense following the trade with the Jets.
Areas for improvement: Patrick Laine hasn’t continued to struggle since his trade from the Jets. The Blue Jackets are having difficulty controlling play and are out-chanced throughout the lineup.
Trade targets: Top 6 forward, Top 4 Defenseman
Nashville Predators
Projected Cap Space: $2,180,332
The Predators are widely expected to be sellers at the deadline as they look at starting a rebuild. Just 4 points out of the last playoff spot, they could surprise if they go on a run before the deadline.
What’s gone right: The Preds have strong possession metrics through the top of the lineup. Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis have been solid on the backend.
Potential Rental Players: While not a true rental, Ekholm has been rumored to be on the block for much of the season as the Preds consider starting a teardown. Signed for one more season, he has a cap hit of $3,750,000. Mikael Granlund ($3,750,000) and Eric Haula ($1,750,000) are upcoming UFAs that could be moved as rentals to a team looking for forward depth.
Dallas Stars
Projected Cap Space: $0
The Stars sit back in 7th in the division after their cup final appearance last year. With 4 games in hand over the 4th place Blackhawks, they may still challenge for a playoff spot.
What’s gone right: The Stars top forwards are out-chancing the opposition and Jason Robertson is having a strong offensive season.
Areas for improvement: None of the Stars top 4 defensemen have xGF% over 50%. For a team that stifled opposition chances in last year’s playoffs, this is out of character for the squad. With the exception of Robertson, the Stars top forwards are struggling to score despite out-chancing their opponents.
Trade targets: Depth defenseman
Detroit Red Wings
Projected Cap Space: $7,688,719
The Red Wings rebuild continues under the watchful eye of Steve Yzerman.
What’s gone right: The Red Wings lack the star power of many of the other teams in the division. They’ve managed to win by committee enough to stay close to the teams ahead of them in the standings.
Potential Rental Players: The Red Wings have 11 upcoming UFA’s on their roster and taxi squad that may be moved as rentals by the deadline. Sam Gagner ($850,000) and Bobby Ryan ($1,000,000) could be affordable depth additions up front for a contender. Jon Merrill ($925,000) may be a affordable move for a team looking for depth on defense.
Other Trade Deadline Previews:
2020-2021 Trade Deadline Preview: North Division
