I’ve been checking in on some of the more prominent free agent signings from last offseason to see how they are performing with their new teams. Today, we’ll check in on Barclay Goodrow.
The Contract
Date: July 22, 2021
Signed by New York Rangers:
- Barclay Goodrow (age 28): 6 year, $3.64M cap hit, M-NMC)
Projected Impact / Initial Value Assessment:
Goodrow was a key piece of the Tampa Bay Lightning’s third line in their back-to-back Stanley Cup runs. With cap space tight in Tampa, the Rangers took the opportunity to land Goodrow ahead of free agency opening by sending the Lightning a 7th round pick in exchange for his negotiating rights. Goodrow and the Rangers came to an agreement on a long term deal that will see Goodrow in New York into his mid-30s.
Goodrow’s projected Impact for the 2021/2022 season is 0.46 5v5 Net G/60 Above Replacement, which is a borderline 3rd/4th line forward. Based on the value curve, the market value for a UFA forward of Goodrow’s impact is $1,775,860. It looks like the Ranger’s overpaid for a forward who is likely a best fit in their bottom six, tying up valuable cap space in the process. With a 6 year term, the long term projection isn’t great either with Goodrow’s impact projected to decline to a 4th line forward by the end of the deal.
| To NYR (Year 1) | To NYR (Year 6) | |
| Barclay Goodrow – Player Impact | $2,404,000 | $2,128,000 |
| Barclay Goodrow – Contract Expiry (UFA) | $0 | $0 |
| Barclay Goodrow – Opportunity Cost | -$1,237,667 | -$1,513,667 |
| Total Value | $1,166,333 | $614,333 |
2021-2022 Performance
New York Rangers – Barclay Goodrow
Goodrow’s impact through 31 games of season one in New York has been a bit of a mixed bag. His defensive impact has been much worse than projected, falling in the top quartile for 5v5 xGA/60 among NHL forwards. Offensively, things have been better relative to projections, which may be a result of Goodrow playing higher up the lineup in New York than he did in Tampa Bay. Goodrow has also been a key forward on the Rangers penalty kill this season.
Team Performance – New York Rangers
The Rangers have been good this season, despite some concerning trends in their 5v5 play. Their penalty kill, which Goodrow has been a big part of, is among the best in the NHL. At 5v5, however, the Rangers are giving up more than they are creating offensively. Having Goodrow find his defensive game at 5v5 would certainly be a step in the right direction to correct the Ranger’s even strength game.
The Verdict
Based on the early returns, the Rangers are getting less value than projected from Goodrow through the first part of season 1 of his contract. Even strength defensive impacts have been the issue, with offensive impacts better than projected and Goodrow contributing to a strong Rangers penalty kill.
We’re still early in the season of the first year in a six year deal, so there ‘s plenty of time for the results of this contract to evolve and I’ll check in on it again in the future. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this deal and others, trade check-ins, armchair GM plans and other updates from around the NHL.
