Ken Holland famously (or infamously?) stated that the Oilers needed more “greybeards” following last seasons playoff exit. This past offseason, they parted with young defensemen Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones in separate trades and brought in some more experienced defenesmen. I’ve already checked in the Bear trade this season and today we’ll take a look at the Jones trade that brought Duncan Keith to Edmonton.
The Trade
Date: July 12, 2021
To Edmonton Oilers:
- Duncan Keith (2 years remaining @ $5.54M cap hit, MNC, UFA on expiry, age 37)
- Tim Soderlund (1 year remaining @ $825k cap hit, RFA on expiry, age 23)
To Arizona Coyotes:
- Caleb Jones (1 year remaining @ $850k cap hit, RFA on expiry, age 24)
- 2022 3nd Round Pick (Condition: If the Oilers make it to the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals and Keith is top 4 in playoffs TOI for Oilers defensemen during the first 3 rounds, the pick upgrades to a 2022 2nd round)
Projections (Oilers):
The Oilers acquired Keith following GM Ken Holland’s stated search for ‘greybeards’. Keith certainly has championship experience, however, age is becoming a factor in his effectiveness. Keith has lost a step from his younger days and a declining impact is clear in his projection. Projected to have an impact of less than a 3rd pair defenseman in the 21/22 season, it only gets worse next season. With a cap hit over $5M, the Oilers are not getting what they are paying for with Keith’s projected value at only $2.19M.
Hockey Prospecting saw Tim Soderlund with a 15% chance of becoming a regular NHLer (200+ game) after his D+3 season. He’s now a few years beyond that, and there doesn’t seem to be any signs that he’ll become anything more than organizational depth.
Projections (Blackhawks):
Caleb Jones is a promising young defenseman who didn’t seem to get an opportunity in Edmonton. Just entering his prime at age 24, Jones has a projected impact of a 2nd pair defenseman this season and could become a top pair defenseman in his prime. With a measly $850 cap hit providing $3.32M in projected value this season, Jones is capable defender with a highly efficient cap hit. As a pending RFA, Jones is due a raise next season but it should be for a reasonable amount with him still under team control.
2021-2022 Performance
Edmonton Oilers – Duncan Keith
Keith has exceeded projections through his first 19 games in Edmonton. Offensively, he’s been slightly better than projected and there aren’t any glaring signs that it’s not sustainable. He’s shooting just over 4% at 5v5, which is about average for defensemen. Playing with Connor McDavid seems to have buoyed his offensive statistics (shocking!?), however only about 20% of Keith’s 5v5 TOI has been with McDavid. Defensive impact was the biggest concern in acquiring Keith. Keith responded to a question in an offseason press conference that “once we hit the ice, we will see who’s a step behind“. Oiler fans will quick to point out that it’s been Keith a step behind off the rush regularly this season, however his overall 5v5 xGA/60 is much better than projected and below the league median.
Edmonton Oilers – Tim Soderlund
Soderlund has spent time in the ECHL and AHL this season. He had 9 points in 8 games with the Wichita Thunder of the ECHL and has 0 points in 2 games with the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL.
Chicago Blackhawks – Caleb Jones
Caleb Jones started the year on the IR and, while he’s returned to action, has just 98 minutes of 5v5 time for us to evaluate. The models used for projections are trained using a minimum of 200 minutes per season for historical data, so we are looking at very small sample that’s still likely to change significantly. Offensively, Jones has started slow in Chicago. This isn’t uncommon for defensemen with low TOI totals since their point production rates are much lower than forwards. We’ll likely see Jones’ offensive numbers trend upward over a larger sample. Defensively, Jones hasn’t been as strong as projected, but is still under the league median in 5v5 xGA/60.
Chicago Blackhawks – 2022 3rd Round Pick *Conditional (EDM)
A future asset with nothing to evaluate yet.
The Verdict
At the time of the trade, it looked as though Chicago won this trade handily given Caleb Jones had the higher projected impact for the 21/22 season, the better long term projection, and a the lower cap hit relative to Duncan Keith. Jones has been slow out of the gate following an injury that kept him sidelined to start the season and Keith has been slightly better than projected, narrowing the gap slightly. Yet the Oilers’ defense corps remains an issue this season, as we saw in the Oilers Armchair GM plan, and one has to wonder if Keith was the right addition to stabilize the back end. We need a larger sample size to get a good picture of Jones’ performance this season so the Blackhawks still have the edge in the trade, although by slightly less than originally anticipated.
There ‘s plenty of time for the results of this trade to evolve and I’ll check in on it again in the future. Subscribe to get future check-ins on this trade and others, check-ins on free agent signings, armchair GM plans, and other updates from around the NHL.
