The Florida Panthers crashed hard this season, missing the playoffs entirely after winning back-to-back Stanley Cups. In the Atlantic Division Notebook in March, we questioned how wise it would be for the Panthers to assume this year’s failing were simply due to long term injuries rather than some other root cause that would be more problematic to their long term results.
There’s no doubt that losing key players to long term injuries took it’s toll on this year’s version of the Panthers. Aleksander Barkov missing the entire season was a big loss, as were other long term injuries to players like Matthew Tkachuk. But perhaps there’s more to the Panthers story this year than simply an injury list.
Following their cup wins, the Panthers rewarded many of their players on expiring deals with extensions. It was a classic ‘keep the band together’ scenario that played out, with the underlying expectation that winning in the future would occur because the team was able to win with this group in the past.
As it turns out, keeping the band together seems to rarely work out well in the NHL. The trouble is, the age curve is short enough at it’s peak that keeping a large chunk of a winning roster in tact is often a good way to entice a team level age decline. Like putting a frog in water and gradually raising the temperature, it can be difficult to sense the danger because there usually isn’t one glaring sign that the roster is unravelling.
The Panthers are in exactly that spot right now, with their key players all exiting their prime together. It would be easy to assume that this year’s downturn was simply due to key injuries. That could lead to a second year of status quo without acknowledging the ageing impacts on the roster. In turn, that may very well erode some additional roster value before the Panthers decide they have to make some changes.
Sure, there are a few players like Anton Lundell just entering their prime. But they’re few and the Panthers’ pipeline was pillaged in their successful quest for the Stanley Cup. There isn’t much in the pipeline now that can be expected to offset the decline from the veterans over the next few years.
There may be no better time than this summer for the Panthers to make some regenerative deals. Depth player like Eetu Luostarinen or Evan Rodrigues might fetch decent returns with their Stanley Cup pedigree. It may even be the ideal time to move one of Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett or Sam Reinhart to maximize their trade value at the tail end of their prime years, although all three have full no movement clauses.
