Nine years into the Connor McDavid era, the Edmonton Oilers are still searching for a Stanley Cup. They came up one win short last spring, in a season that seemed like it might be their best shot of McDavid’s tenure thus far. McDavid has two seasons left on his current contract, while running mate Leon Draisaitl is a pending 2025 UFA and star defenseman Evan Bouchard is a pending 2025 RFA. The Oilers will run it back with much the same roster as last season for the 2024-2025 season but change is brewing next summer.
The Oilers are clearly one of the NHL’s current contenders. They have among the leagues oldest rosters as well, with 9 forwards and 4 defensemen likely to be on their 23 man roster already age 30+. Collectively, age related decline is going to be an issue moving forward and the front office needs to address it to extend their contention window. Let’s build a roadmap for the Oilers to extend their current window through the back half of Connor McDavid’s career.
Player Tiers and Cohort Theory
If you read my recent roadmap for the Calgary Flames return to contention, you’ll be familiar with the Player Tier and Cohort Theory concepts. If you didn’t, or you’d like full context on the ideas, you can refer to the original posts below since they’ll be core concepts for building the roadmap:
Roster Roadmap: Extending the Oilers Window
The first step in building our roadmap is to understand the current state of the Oilers roster. Obviously, the starting point is their two superstar forwards. Connor McDavid (27) and Leon Draisaitl (28) are squarely in their prime. They are clearly Elite forwards that the team can build around. On defense, Evan Bouchard (24) has fully emerged as an Elite defenseman.
The three players above are an excellent starting point to build a roster around. The trouble from a longer term perspective is that most of the current roster around them is fully in the veteran age group. If the Oilers don’t begin to turnover that part of the roster, age related decline is going to begin eating away at the collective performance of the roster. The Oilers primary cohort right now is the age 30-34 age bracket.
Using the ideas from cohort theory, the way to ensure the roster remains competitive as the primary cohort exits it’s prime is to have a developing cohort following with roughly a 4 year gap between the cohorts. For the Oilers, that would put the developing cohort now in the age 22-25 age range centered around Evan Bouchard. McDavid and Draisaitl fall in the gap, which is ideal for superstar players. We can consider them as anchor talents that will bridge the cohorts together.
After the collective age of the roster, the Oiler’s next challenge is the salary cap. Like we’d expect with a contender, the Oilers are fully capped out. It played a role in the loss of two players from their developing cohort this summer when Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway signed offer sheets with the St Louis Blues. The good news is that the Oilers have plenty of contracts set to expire over the next two seasons, leaving them long term flexibility. The bad news is that their superstar trio are among that group and will command hefty raises if the Oilers area able to extend them.
Let’s work our way through the current roster, staring with the group we want to center the next phase of the contention window around. Players are listed below with the following information: Position – Player (Age / Cap Hit / Years Remaining Under Contract).
Primary Contention Cohort
While the current roster is built around a cohort that is in their early 30s, we need to transition away from that group if we want to sustain a contending roster. We’ll consider the current core the veteran cohort for the long term plan and start building a new primary contention cohort centered around Evan Bouchard. We’re going to look for players in the 22-25 age range and we want 6 forwards and 3 defensemen in it.
D – Evan Bouchard (24 / $3.9MM / 1Y) – Starting on the blueline, Bouchard is the obvious anchor for the group. The 2018 10th overall pick has cemented his status as one of the NHL most dangerous blueliners over the past couple of seasons. His 5v5 production is among the best of any defensemen picked 6th-10th overall in the past 15 years and he had the ice time to match last season as well. At 24, he fits squarely in the age range we want to build around.
D – Ty Emberson (24 / $950k / 1Y) – Unfortunately, it’s fairly slim pickings after Bouchard. The Oilers let Philip Broberg leave for St Louis after he signed an offer sheet this summer. They did acquire Ty Emberson, seemingly as a replacement for Broberg, who had a good rookie season with the Sharks last year. He fell in the Support tier, so the hope will be that he can maintain that level going forward. He’s also a potential Group 6 UFA next summer, unless he plays a majority of the season in the NHL. That leaves one more spot on defense that we need to fill. The Oilers prospect system doesn’t have a likely candidate, so we’re going to have to look externally.
F – Vasily Podkolzin (23 / $1.0MM / 2Y) – Up front, things are a little more dire. Again, the Oilers let Dylan Holloway leave for St Louis after signing an offer sheet and brought in a replacement still in the age range for the primary cohort. Podkolzin had a decent rookie season, but his performance fell off in Vancouver and he saw only 19 games of NHL action in his D+5 season (leaving a blank on the development charts that require 20+ GP). It’s a gamble by the Oilers that they can help him find his game at the NHL level. We’ll hope that he can settle in, but we probably shouldn’t expect more than a Contributor Tier forward.
Aside from Podkolzin, the Oilers don’t have any additional forwards that we’ve seen in any meaningful sample size of NHL games. We can fill a couple of spots in the cohort with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl as anchor talents bridging the current core to the new one. They are obviously elite players that we can expect to continue to contribute in a big way into their 30s.
Newly acquired Matthew Savoie is only 20, younger than our primary cohort, but he’s the only Oilers forward prospect with high star potential so we’ll pencil him in as well. That still leaves us with two holes in the forward group that we need to fill.
| F – Connor McDavid | F – Matthew Savoie | D – Evan Bouchard |
| F – Leon Draisaitl | F – TBD | D – Ty Emberson |
| F – Vasily Podkolzin | F – TBD | D – TBD |
In goal, we have some good news as incumbent #1 Stuart Skinner is 25 so we also have a starting goaltender who fits with our new cohort.
Veteran Cohort
Now that we have a handle on the group that we’d like to transition in as the primary cohort over the next few seasons, it’s time to take a look at the veteran group. We want to identify a few players that we’d like to keep as experienced leaders that we think will still be capable of pulling their weight on the ice as well. The rest of the group can become expendable and may be pieces we can move to help fill out the rest of the incoming cohort. Remember, the goal is 3 forwards and 1-2 defensemen remaining in the veteran cohort by the time the primary cohort is fully in their prime.
D – Mattias Ekholm (34 / $6.0MM / 2Y) – Ekholm has been a game changer for the Oilers since arriving ahead of the 2023 trade deadline. He’s stabilized the defense and become an excellent fit as a partner for Bouchard. With a very reasonable $6MM cap hit, he’s the most obvious choice to try to keep in the veteran cohort. The biggest risk is his age. He’ll over 35 by the end of his current deal and getting into the twilight of his NHL playing career by the time the new primary cohort is driving the roster.
D – Darnell Nurse (29 / $9.25MM / 6Y) – Nurse has been a better fit on the second pair since Ekholm and Bouchard started eating top pair assignments last season. His cap hit is still rather large though. If there’s a reasonable deal out there to get his cap hit off the books, it’s worth exploring. Retained salary for six years of a contention window can’t be part of that solution, although the cost is likely prohibitive to explore that option regardless. We may have to keep him around. His somewhat younger age relative to other options is the good news. At 29, he should have a few years left near his current impact.
F – Zach Hyman (32 / $5.5MM / 4Y) – Hyman has been an excellent fit on Connor McDavid’s wing. He’s shown he knows how to play with great players in his time with the Leafs and Oilers. He helps drive 5v5 play and his $5.5MM cap hit is quite reasonable for a top six forward.
F – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (31 / $5.25MM / 5Y) – Nugent-Hopkins has long been a fan favortie in Edmonton and he signed a team friendly deal that will keep him with the Oilers into his mid 30s. He’s an excellent support piece and is a candidate to be a career Oiler.
F – Jeff Skinner (32 / $3.0MM / 1Y) – The final pick for the veteran cohort come with a big asterisk. Jeff Skinner signed for a $3MM cap hit after being bought out by the Sabres this summer. He can still contribute, and his new cap hit is very good for what he should bring to the Oilers. If he’s interested in staying without a raise, he could be a very good option to round out the veteran group.
With the veteran group added to the primary cohort, here’s what we want the roster to look like in 3-4 years. The spots marked ‘Primary Cohort TBD’ we need to fill with at least Support Tier forwards and an upgrade on the second pair would be welcome. The other ‘TBD’ spots can be short term commitments or prospects to fill out depth for the contending roster.
| Zach Hyman (Support) | Connor McDavid (Elite) | Leon Draisaitl (Elite) | Mattias Ekholm (Support) | Evan Bouchard (Elite) |
| Primary Cohort TBD | Matthew Savoie (Support) | Primary Cohort TBD | Darnell Nurse (Contributor) | Ty Emberson (Contributor) |
| Vasily Podkolzin (Contributor) | Ryan Nugent Hopkins (Support) | Jeff Skinner (Contributor) | TBD | TBD |
| TBD | TBD | TBD | Stuart Skinner | TBD |
Trade Chips and Targets
With the roster penciled in for a 3-5 year window, the remainder of the current NHL roster become potential trade chips as we look at how to fill in the holes in the primary cohort. Most have one or two years left on their current deals, which means we don’t have a very long window to make trades before those players hit free agency. In many cases, the best option may be letting those players walk as free agents to free up roster spots and cap space. Let’s take a look at a few of the more likely trade chips that we may be able to turn into another, younger, roster piece.
F – Viktor Arvidsson (31 / $4.0MM / 2Y) – The Oilers signed Arvidsson this summer and he should give the teams current cup aspirations a boost. Not included in our longer term plan though, he becomes a valuable trade chip. The optimal time for a potential trade is likely the 2025 offseason, avoiding removing him from the roster in the midst of a campaign where the Oilers will also be trying to contend. Ideally, the Oilers can flip a player like Arvidsson, perhaps with another asset attached, to acquire one of the additional forwards needed for the primary cohort. With the primary cohort in the age 22-25 range, the additional asset could be a prospect age 21 or younger.
F – Adam Henrique (34 / $3.0MM / 2Y) – Another trade chip option similar to Arvidsson, the ideal time to move Henrique would be next summer for a younger roster player that fits with the primary cohort.
F – Brett Kulak (30 / $2.75MM / 2Y) – Another similar option, this time on defense. Kulak has been a very good third pair defenseman for the Oilers and really helped fill out their blue line depth. Now cresting 30, it may be time to get something in return for him to help transition the roster to the incoming cohort.
F – Mattias Janmark (31 / $1.45MM / 3Y) – Janmark is under contract for 3 more seasons, making him a trade chip with a slightly longer window to complete a deal. We shouldn’t expect the return to be a missing piece for the primary cohort, but bringing in a prospect or pick may help to do so.
After this, trade options from the NHL roster get pretty thin. Much of the remaining roster players are entering the final year of their contracts and the Oilers won’t want to give up roster pieces during a season that they are trying to contend.
Prospects are the other valuable trade chip the Oilers have. Although their prospect pool is among the worst in the league, there may still be interest from other teams in attaching one of them with a roster player as a trade package. In the long term plan, we’d like to leave a gap after the primary cohort and start building the next developing cohort around the 2024 to 2027 drafts. That leaves prospects in the 18-21 age range in the gap between cohorts and we can use them to help build either the primary cohort or the developing cohort.
A More Dramatic Option
The plan as we’ve outlined it is great in theory but there are some serious question marks. There are a couple of substantial holes that need to be filled in the primary cohort and the trade chips we have don’t inspire a lot of confidence that they can return two Support Tier forwards in the age range we are looking for. There may be one more option.
Trade Leon Draisaitl. Now, this comes with a massive asterisk attached. This trade cannot be done just for the sake of change. Draisaitl is a key piece in the new contention roster we’ve outlined. Maybe such a move is forced by the player not agreeing to an extension and a sign and trade deal can be found. Or maybe the ideal return is out there somewhere.
What would we be looking for in an ideal return? Think about what transpired a few hours down the road in Calgary two summers ago. The Panthers turned a late prime forward, along with a late prime defenseman and some futures into an Elite Tier forward just entering his prime. That’s the kind of return we’re after. Of course, we don’t have to follow the precise blueprint from that trade. Leon Draisaitl is a much better player than Jonathan Huberdeau. Maybe Draisaitl is the only piece the Oilers include. The return package may include multiple pieces but we’re looking for Matthew Tkachuk level impact coming back in player(s) just entering their prime. What if the Devils were willing to give up currently unsigned RFA Dawson Mercer, one of their stud defense prospects and a first round pick? What if the Senators were willing to give up Brady Tkachuk and Jake Sanderson, who would both fit the primary cohort age range and who’s combined cap hit may not be much more than a Draisaitl extension? I’m not convinced this is a trade that can be won, but it’s worth exploring.
Addendum: Draisaitl Extension
As it turns out, my timing publishing this post was not ideal. Leon Draisaitl’s 8 year, $112MM contract was announced just hours later. So, what does it mean for the roadmap?
Not a lot. We have more clarity on Draisaitl’s status. There’s no risk of him deciding to leave next summer, so the sign and trade option discussed as a more extreme option goes out the window as well. The full MNC means the trade option is off the table entirely because, presumably, Draisaitl will have no interest in leaving if the Oilers remain a contender. That doesn’t really change the overall plan though. We had Draisaitl in the primary cohort in the roadmap. The extension confirms he’s there and now we know what the price tag associated with that is. Extending McDavid and Bouchard is the next order of business, then the challenge begins to fill out the appropriate depth around them with the remaining cap space.
Here’s the updated cap cliff with Draisaitl’s new deal included. It does put in perspective the effectiveness of St Louis signing Holloway and Broberg to 2 year offer sheets. Less than 20% cap space left for Bouchard’s extension and another 4-5 players for the 25/26 roster.
Edmonton Oilers Roster Roadmap Summary
