The Minnesota Wild took a step back this season, missing the postseason for the first time since the 2018-2019 season. With the weight of the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts sting being felt, where are the Wild headed?
Roster Ruminations
NHL Roster
The Wild have managed very well through the worst of the Parise and Suter buyout penalties. They’ve managed to put together a competitive roster despite working with a roughly 15% less cap space over the past few seasons. It seems to be taking it’s toll, though, with a projection next season that looks like a team on the playoff bubble again.
Salary Cap Management
The Wild’s decision to buy out Parise and Suter in 2021 is still having a major impact on the team’s cap sheet. They still have one more year in cap purgatory from those buyouts, with nearly a $15MM penalty next season. Much of their roster remains under contract for at least two more seasons so they have very limited flexibility to add this summer. Any notable additions will likely require a corresponding subtraction from the roster to make the cap work. A year out, things start to look better as their buyout penalties finally subside.
Future Assets
Hockey Prospecting ranks the Wild prospect pool 10th in the NHL and it includes a few prospects with high end potential. They also have a draft success probability over the next three summers that is slightly above baseline. They have all their own first and second round picks and have added a handful of picks between the third and sixth rounds.
What’s Next?
The Wild are in an interesting position for a team about to find an influx of cap space. There’s a noticeable split between a veteran cohort with players in their late prime or older and an incoming young cohort not yet in their prime. The older group includes long time Wild players like Mats Zuccarello and Jonas Brodin. Some of these players may fit into the medium term plan going forward, but it’s hard to see how this group can form the basis to build a contender around.
The logical place for the Wild to put their focus going forward is around the incoming cohort with Matt Boldy and Brock Faber at it’s head. This cohort has been building for a while and the Wild will need it to become the focal point of their roster as their veteran group ages out. With their 10th ranked prospect pool, it’s not clear if the cohort is strong enough as is to get them to contender status. However, their soon to be available cap space can help. They’ll need to be careful not to overcommit to free agents that don’t truly move the needle, but the Wild will have the resources to bring in reinforcements via free agency or trade to fill specific needs.
There are a few players that fall in between the two main cohorts on the Wild’s roster. That includes Kirill Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek, who are both good top six players. These players are further from sliding down the back side of the age curve and can provide a stabilizing force for the roster as the younger cohort is phased in.
The Wild have on more year in cap purgatory. Then things get interesting.
