It’s been a slow downhill slide in Washington since their Stanley Cup victory in 2018. Alex Ovechkin is slowing down with the team, but he’s closing in on Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record. Can the Capitals give him enough support to get there?
Roster Ruminations
NHL Roster
The Capitals roster has been in decline for a while. A playoff race that saw a number of teams stumble down the stretch allowed the Capitals to snag a wild card berth this season despite an abysmal goal differential. It looks like the trend will continue next season based on the early model projections. The Capitals are projected to struggle in possession metrics and goaltending, resulting in a team strength that looks like it may not be able to hang around the playoff picture next season.
Salary Cap Management
For a team sliding in decline, the Capitals cap sheet isn’t as clean as one might like. Tom Wilson is locked up until the end of the 2030-2031 season and a number of others are under contract for the medium term. There’s a mix of veterans and younger players in that group but none are the anchor talents needed to drive a team. Alex Ovechkin has two years left on his deal. Now 41 goals back of Gretzky’s record, that could very well be enough to become the highest scoring NHLer ever.
Future Assets
While the Capitals haven’t embraced a full on rebuild, they have accumulated some draft Capital for the next few drafts. Their draft success profile sits well above baseline with their 26 picks over the next 3 years. It’s a recent initiative though and their prospect pool isn’t in the same shape. Hockey Prospecting ranks the Capitals prospect pool 23rd in the NHL. They have a couple of exciting prospects in Ryan Leonard and Andrew Cristall but it drops off quickly after that.
What’s Next?
It’s clearly all about Alex Ovechkin’s pursuit of Gretzky’s goal scoring record at this point. We started hearing about the potential in the mainstream media a few seasons ago and Ovechkin has kept up the pace needed to get there on his current contract. His underlying numbers aren’t projected to be great at 5v5 next season, but he’s still a very good sniper. Provided the Capitals can feed him the puck, especially on the powerplay, the goals record looks very much in reach.
If Ovechkin decides to hang them up after his current deal is up, the Capitals look ready to fall off a cliff. That is, if they don’t do it before then. Next season’s team projection isn’t flattering. There are a number of older players that we should expect to see some age related decline from. Tom Wilson is 30 and he has a 7 year extension set to kick in next season. John Carlson has two years left on his deal and he’ll be 36 when it’s up. There are others as well like TJ Oshie, Trevor van Reimsdyk, and Nick Jensen. The Capitals would be wise to move some of this group if they can find an opportunity and convert their aging roster into future potential.
The Capitals have a few younger players that they’ve inked to recent extensions. Rasmus Sandin and Aliaksei Protas both have medium length extensions that kick in next year. Their both competent NHLers but they don’t have the star power needed to carry the team for their next era. The Capitals really don’t have an heir apparent to Ovechkin as the face of the franchise.
The Capitals are likely to do everything they can to put enough talent around Alex Ovechkin that he can set a new goal scoring record. Beyond that, they should be looking to turn over the older part of their roster to start to restock their futures pipeline.
