The Los Angeles Kings dropped their third straight first round series to the Edmonton Oilers last week. What looked like a very promising young team a few seasons ago has stalled out. Is the rebuild still on track?
Roster Ruminations
NHL Roster
Let’s get the bad news out of the way early. The Kings are projected to be an average team next season in the model. That’s with a roster that has only a few UFAs stripped from it (notably Viktor Arvidsson, Trevor Lewis, Matt Roy and all 3 NHL goalies). It’s not a great look for a team that should have internal growth driving it’s long term improvement. The good news is the Kings underlying possession numbers are projected to be strong, which is similar to the 23/24 season. Team finishing has been an issue as they’ve pushed back into the playoff picture and that trend is predicted to continue as well.
Salary Cap Management
The Kings cap sheet looks good upon first glance, but it’s what’s not shown that hides the challenge. There are only 13 players under contract shown here, with 10 pending RFAs included on the current 2024/2025 roster. That list includes Alex Turcotte, Blake Lizotte, Carl Grundstrom, Arthur Kaliev, Jordan Spence and Quinton Byfield. Byfield’s breakout suggests he could be in line for a big, long term deal and just signing RFAs to complete a 23 player roster will eat a lot of the Kings available cap space. The long term plan is a bit of a question mark too. After the rebuild the Kings undertook, we should see some of their young cohort on longer term deals. They aren’t there yet. If Byfield does ink a big deal this summer, he’ll be the first one.
Future Assets
The Kings have been using their future assets to acquire players to help them over the hump over the past few seasons. Hockey Prospecting ranks the Kings prospect pool 12th in the NHL, which was one of the best in the league a couple of seasons ago. Their draft pick stockpile is down to 18 picks in the next three drafts, putting their draft success probability slightly below baseline.
What’s Next?
The Kings’ put together a young cohort with their rebuild and Quinton Byfield is the face of that group after his breakout season. Patience with Byfield’s development paid off and he was among the Kings best forwards this season. His projection for next season suggests more of the same, with good possession metrics and a strong playmaking. While the Kings have raided this group to make some of their more recent trade acquisitions, there are still some good players in this cohort. Jordan Spence is the best defenseman that has established a full time NHL position, but Brandt Clarke is also waiting in the wings. If he earns a full time spot next season, we could well see another rookie breakout season in LA next year.
The plan in Los Angeles appears to have always been to rebuild quickly enough to ice a competitive team while Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty were still Kings. Both are still good players, but at age 36 and 34 respectively, they are in their twilight years as NHL players. It’s admirable for the Kings front office to try to give their longtime franchise players another run at the cup, but it may end up being a fatal mistake with their rebuild.
To try to return to contender status while Doughty and Kopitar are still in the fold, the Kings have taken big swings on the offseason trade market the last couple of seasons. Two summers ago, they added Kevin Fiala. Last summer, in came Pierre-Luc Dubois. Circumstances were different for each of their previous teams, but both landed in LA as RFAs and the Kings signed them both to long term extensions. Rather than focus the rebuild around the Byfield cohort, the Kings have created a new focus cohort already in their prime with Fiala now 27 and Dubois 25. What’s most concerning for the long term plan is the assets they gave up in the trades. Brock Faber is a Calder finalist with the Wild and Gabe Vilardi was a big part of the Jets success this season. Those players could have been coming through the system with the rebuild cohort.
The Kings have raided their rebuild cohort to try to accelerate their ascension back to contender status. It may have cost them. They look poised to get stuck in the mushy middle, with limited cap space and no clear focus cohort for long term success.
