The Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari from the St Louis Blues yesterday, with the Minnesota Wild acting as a third party broker to retain salary. The Wild also sent Josh Pillar to Toronto. The Blues retained 50% of O’Reilly’s cap hit and the Wild retained another 25%, landing O’Reilly in Toronto with only 25% of his total cap hit. The Blues received Adam Gaudette, Mikhail Abramov, a 2023 1st round pick (TOR), 2023 3rd round pick (OTT), and 2024 2nd round pick (TOR) while the Wild received a 2025 4th round pick (MIN).
The Pieces
Ryan O’Reilly
Ryan O’Reilly headlines the deal. He led the Blues to the Stanley Cup as captain in 2019, winning the Conn Smythe trophy in the process. He is a pending UFA, so he is a pure rental this season. Known as a strong two-way player, his impact has dwindled this season. He’s still a capable middle six forward though, and his 5v5 assist rates are due for improvement based on the model projections.
Noel Acciari
Noel Acciari is another pending UFA. His projected impact has been trending upward this season. He brings a two-way, with defensive impact that is better than league average. His offensive production is primarily goal scoring oriented, with a 5v5 G/60 that is league average this season.
Prospects, Picks, and Other Players
Josh Pillar is a 21 year old winger currently playing in for the Saskatoon Blades in the WHL. He was drafted by the Wild in the 4th round in 2021. Hockey Prospecting‘s model had his NHLer probability at 39% at the end of his D+3 season, with a 1% star probability.
Adam Gaudette has played 218 NHL games throughout his career. He has spent the entirely of the 2022/23 season in the AHL with the Toronto Marlies, putting up 34 points in 40 games.
Mikhail Abramov is a 21 year old forward who has spent the 2022/23 season in the AHL. Drafted by the Maple Leafs in the 4th round in 2019, Hockey Prospecting’s model had his NHLer probability at 18% at the end of his D+3 season, with a 0% star probability.
There were no conditions included on any of the draft picks. With the Maple Leafs currently sitting 5th in the NHL by P%, the first round pick sent to St Louis is likely to be a late round pick.
The Teams
Toronto Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs held the top rated roster in the model prior to the trade. Sitting second in the Atlantic, it looks almost certain that they’ll meet the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round of the playoffs for the second straight season. With a well documented history of failing to get through the first round, the Leafs are looking to finally break through in the playoffs this season.
The Leafs’ current core could be facing significant changes over the next couple of seasons, particularly if they cannot find success in the playoffs. Their big four forwards are under contract for 1-2 seasons following this one while nearly all their remaining NHL forwards are pending UFAs this season.
St Louis Blues
The Blues have been on a downward trajectory since their cup win in 2018/19 and signaled their intent to sell at this year’s deadline when they sent Vladimir Tarasenko to the Rangers last week.
The Blues’ have a significant number of long term contracts on the books for older players, with roughly 80% of next season’s cap already committed. Their prospect pool is not well stocked either, ranking 25th in Hockey Prospecting’s model. Most of their expiring contracts are UFAs, which provides opportunity for a deadline sell-off.
Minnesota Wild
The Wild are a bit player in the deal, acting as a third party broker to make the cap work for all sides. In a pitched battle for a wild card berth this season, they are hampered by large dead cap hits for this season and next.
The Verdict
The Maple Leafs acquired the best two players in the deal. They improve their already top rated team profile marginally, adding depth and playoff experience in the process.
The fact that both players headed to the Leafs are pending UFAs means that their flexibility to reshape their core over the next few seasons remains intact. The price feels steep as the Leafs gave up a mittful of draft picks, but with the pressure to win now it doesn’t seem entirely unreasonable.
For the Blues, landing a significant package of draft picks for two pending UFAs is a big win. The current group isn’t competitive so change is required. Acknowledging that and moving out older players they were unlikely to re-sign is a good first step. They now have three 1st round picks in the highly touted 2023 draft. With Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas now signed long term, the picks will help the Blues craft a new core around their young stars. In the short term, the Blues current roster profile remains largely unchanged.
The Wild add a 4th round pick for their assistance in brokering the deal, although they also give up a prospect in the deal. With the Suter and Parise buyouts putting large dead cap hits on their books for the next few seasons, their focus on building a contender should be focused a few years out. In that vein, not giving up future assets for rentals this season makes sense and they use their available cap space to add a draft pick instead.
Historical player data from Natural Stat Trick. Contract data from CapFriendly.
