It’s been a couple of days since the dust settled on the 2025 trade deadline. The Dallas Stars made the biggest splash of the season, acquiring former division rival Mikko Rantanen from the Carolina Hurricanes a few weeks after he was traded out of Colorado.
This trade turned the roster roadmap I set out for the Stars last fall on it’s head. At that time, I had proposed that the optimal path forward for the Stars was a contention cohort centered around Jason Robertson(age 25) and Wyatt Johnston (age 21). Rantanen is 28, so he doesn’t really fit into that cohort, but I still like the big swing from the Stars.
Big Swing
Teambuilding Tenet #5 is Swing Big For Stars. Players of Rantanen’s caliber do not become available very often. When they do, it’s worth a hefty price to acquire them. Elite players are the staring point for any NHL roster that fancies itself a contender and adding another is almost never a bad idea. In the Stars’ case, they gave up a very good young player in Logan Stankoven and two first round picks in the trade package. That’s a hefty price but, with an eight year extension with Rantanen negotiated ahead of the trade, it landed them a star player they can expect to help lead the team forward for the next number of years.
Not only does Rantanen put points on the board at 5v5, he also has strong possession metrics. He instantly improves the possession outlook of the Stars forwards with the best projected 5v5 CF% of the group and good 5v5 HDCF% as well. Those numbers that matter more in the postseason that individual production, when the competition gets tougher.
The addition of Rantanen shifts the long term outlook for the Stars as well. He’s not the only 28 year old forward in the top six. Roope Hintz was outside the desired age range for the contention cohort in my previous roster roadmap. Now, the contention cohort looks like an age 25-28 group. That still leaves it anchored by the Stars 2017 draft and the group includes Robertson, Hintz, Rantanen, Miro Heiskanen and Jake Oettinger. That’s a solid group currently in their prime to build around.
With Jamie Benn set to come off the books this summer, the big extension for Rantanen is reasonably palatable. The Stars also signed Wyatt Johnston to a five year extension on Friday, so they really don’t have any big free agents this summer they still need to deal with.
Next Steps
If there’s one thing I don’t like about the Rantanen acquisition, it’s what the Stars didn’t do for their 2025 playoff roster. If we look back at the depth chart above, they don’t have a lot of defensemen with strong possession metrics. That feels like a recipe for trouble in the postseason.
While they didn’t address their defense corps at the deadline for the 2025 playoffs, their forward group is pretty well set for the next few years and they can shift their focus on adding to the roster at the back end heading into the summer. Robertson, Hintz, Johnston and Rantanen gives them a solid base to build around up front. On defense, Heiskanen and Thomas Harley are a great starting point but one or two more possession driving top 4 defensemen might push this team to the next level.
There’s also an even longer term objective the Stars can consider as they look to add a few pieces for the current contending cohort. Wyatt Johnston and Thomas Harley are strong building blocks for the next contention cohort. With their upcoming first round picks traded away, the Stars shouldn’t expect a future cohort to come from the next few drafts. Instead, they could look to prospects in the 19-22 age range for possible additions to the Johnston/Harley cohort that to eventually take over. At the older end of that range, they may even be able to find a player that can be a depth contributor for the current group.
