Previous Entry: Rangers Roster Ruminations – March 2024
The New York Rangers are 12-9-1 through their first 22 games and sit fourth in the Metropolitan Division. Not a bad start, but not up to the standard the Rangers have set the past few seasons either. The result has been some noise over the past week that the front office may be considering a major shakeup. Chris Kreider and Jacob Trouba both surfaced in trade rumors.
Let’s start with a look at the Rangers current profile, following the first quarter update, and the current projected standings:
The Rangers look like an average team, expected to hold their current position through the end of the season as a wild card team. That’s not good enough for a team that won the President’s Trophy last season and has made multiple deep playoff runs in recent seasons, certainly in the eyes of the front office.
In the past, the Rangers have overperformed the model on the strength of their special teams, their powerplay in particular. That advantage has not appeared this season with the Rangers powerplay looking relatively average, and their results are much closer to the 5v5 based model prediction.
What’s going on with the Rangers, and is it right time for a big shakeup? We’re going to look at it through the lens of the 10 Tenets of Roster Building.
Tenet #1: Elite Teams Are Driven By Elite Players
The best teams are driven by a few elite players, generally a group of two forwards and one defenseman. By the definition I’ve set out previously (>75th percentile TOI/GP and > 90th percentile P/60 at 5v5), there are 39 forwards and 20 defensemen that currently fall into the Elite Tier based on the current set of player projections. The Rangers have just one of them: Artemi Panarin.
That’s simply not good enough for a team that fancies themselves as cup contenders. Now, it’s not that bleak. Obviously, Adam Fox is a candidate to be an Elite Tier defenseman. His projected point production is high enough, but he’s just short of the predicted TOI/GP requirement. He’s just below the line and could very well be above it at the mid-season update.
On the forwards side, Alex Lafrenière is the closest the Rangers have for a second Elite Tier forward. His ice time meets the required threshold in the latest update, but his 5v5 point production is still short. The 90th percentile cutoff for 5v5 production is at 2.08 P/60, while Lafrenière is projected at 1.72. Lafrenière has taken some big strides over the past year, but he still fits the profile of a supporting player rather than an elite forward. He may get there, but he’s not there yet.
The Rangers current top players are a good enough group to serve them well in the regular season. When they run into other contenders deep in the playoffs, it’s a different story, since those teams will have an Elite Tier group of their own. The Rangers should look at Tenet #5: Swing Big For Stars. They aren’t positioned to acquire an Elite Tier player through the top of the draft, so they need to be prepared to do whatever it takes to jump on an opportunity when one appears.
Tenet #2: Depth is the Great Divider
What’s more concerning than the Rangers elite tier group is their depth. When looking at depth, we’re looking at the full lineup below the elite tier. We’re also not just concerned with production, but also with possession. Looking back up at the Ranger’s profile, their projected 5v5 possession stats don’t inspire a lot of confidence. Both SF% and CF% are below 50%, while HDCF/60 is around 50%.
Quite simply, that’s not good enough for a contender. It can get a team through the regular season in good shape but it will be a problem when the field gets shortened and the opposition is a strong play driving team.
Looking at the rumored trade chips from this week, Chris Kreider and Jacob Trouba are good examples of the concern. Neither has particularly strong projected possession metrics and both are heavily negative in 5v5 CF%. Kreider, in particular, is among the worst projected possession metrics on the roster. If the Rangers are intent on making a move that shakes up the core, they’re probably looking in the right place. Improving the 5v5 play driving capability through the lineup is needed to ensure they can handle the rigors of the postseason.
Tenet #3: Goaltending Is Voodoo
Tenet #3 suggests that goaltending is a very fickle position, at least in the world of publicly available data and that, to that end, there are very few goalies worthy of large cap hits and/or long term deals. Igor Shesterkin has been one of the best in the world for long enough that he’s on the short list of goalies I would consider a big contract with. That said, he hasn’t been at his best this season. The Rangers long term outlook depends heavily on what they do with Shesterkin and whether he lives up to an extension if that’s the direction they go.
The decision to make Shesterkin the highest paid goalie in the league (as was rumored around the start of the season) will affect the rest of the roster as well. If the Rangers do go that route, it means they have less cap space available to fill out the skater portion of the roster.
Tenet #8: Regenerate the Roster
In the roster ruminations post last spring, I noted that the Rangers made the decision to turn over their roster in 2018 before the wheels completely fell off and it helped them shorten their rebuild timeline. I also suggested that it’s time to start turning over the current roster to ensure they don’t wait too long with this group.
The Rangers roster is currently driven by a veteran group that is entering their 30s and will decline as a group due to age effects. To avoid that negative effect on the roster, it’s imperative that the Rangers reduce the size of that group and transition to a younger core. Lafrenière and Fox are the obvious leaders of the younger cohort but they need help.
This does not mean a full tear down and rebuild are required. It’s more an acknowledgement of the age profile of the current roster and a response to regenerate assets from the aging veteran group while they still have value individually. Not all have to go either, a small veteran group is fine, it’s the sheer size of the veteran cohort that’s the biggest concern here.
We’ve already looked at Kreider and Trouba and they fall into the group we’re looking at. Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trochek and Reilly Smith are the other significant names to look at. The Rangers would be wise to try to move at least two or three of this group by the start of next season.
If there’s a suitable deal (or two) in season this year, that could be even better. Getting younger will future proof the roster. Improving possession metrics like we discussed above will improve playoff resilience for the current roster. And if they can find an opportunity to acquire an Elite Tier player, it could level up the entire roster.
