The Tampa Bay Lightning have been one of the most dominant teams in the NHL over the past decade. In our last look at their roster back in April, we noted that cracks are starting to show in their roster though. Their supporting cast has been significantly diluted following their back-to-back Stanley Cup wins and their roster is in need of regeneration.
Since our look at the team in April, the Lightning secured their spot in the 2024 playoffs in a wild card spot. They dropped their first round series against the Panthers in five games, continuing a declining trend with their playoff outcomes. Not long ago, we thought of the Lightning as a team that just needs to get in and they know how to win. That’s no longer the case after two straight first round exits.
In April’s post, I suggested that the Lightning could regenerate their roster and extend their window by focusing on building a new cohort around Anthony Cirelli and Mikhael Sergachev, who will both be 26 when the puck drops on the 24/25 season. Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy were the only two locks to keep on the roster, while adding 23-26 year old NHL roster players would be the primary goal.
McDonagh Comes Back
The Lightning’s first big move of the offseason was completely at odds with the strategy laid out above. During the third round of the playoffs, they acquired Ryan McDonagh from the Predators along with a 2024 4th round pick, in exchange for a 2025 2nd round pick and a 2024 7th round pick. The trade marked a return to the Lightning for McDonagh two seasons removed from the trade that send him to Nashville in the first place.
When the Lightning jettisoned McDonagh in 2022, it looked like a smart move to shed cap as the then 33 year old McDonagh was under contract through the 25/26 season at a $6.75MM cap hit. The Lightning’s return in the original deal, Phillipe Myers and Grant Mismash have moved on and this summer’s re-acquisition by the Lightning included no cap retention, so the Predators essentially got a two year rental of McDonagh and added a few draft picks out of the trades. The Lightning saved cap space for two years, then brought 35 year old McDonagh back. He can still contribute, but he’s at a point in his career where we should expect less each season.
Guentzel Becomes a Bolt
The next big move by the Lightning this offseason came on the eve of free agency. The Bolts acquired the rights to pending UFA Jake Guentzel from the Hurricanes in exchange for a 2025 3rd round pick. They then signed the 29 year old to a seven year deal with $9MM cap hit.
Guentzel is a highly impactful player in his late prime and there’s every reason to believe he can help the Lightning in the short term. It’s the long term vision for the roster that is the concern. It’s more difficult, but adding players just entering their prime could have set the Lightning up to bolt on an extension to their contention window. Instead, they added another player on the cusp of the inevitable decline through the back half of their career, with a large price tag attached.
Hedman Stays Put
Victor Hedman became eligible to sign an extension on July 1 and the Lightning didn’t waste much time, inking a four year deal on July 2. The extension comes with an $8MM cap hit, a slight raise from his current $7.75MM cap hit, and locks up Hedman through his age 37 season. Hedman is still a very good defenseman, but it continues the trends we’ve seen through many of the Lightning’s recent moves. They’re committing long term to older players. Eventually, the collective age related decline on the roster is going to take it’s toll if there isn’t adequate development from younger players to balance it out.
Hidden Costs
The combination of the three big moves above come with some interesting hidden costs if we look back at the potential roster building strategy we laid out at the top and we consider the additional moves they precipitated. The addition of McDonagh and Hedman’s extension made keeping Mikael Sergachev a pipe dream and he was traded to Utah on draft weekend.
Sergachev was the defenseman we noted that the Lightning could focus their next cohort around and moving him puts a big dent in any hope to truly extend Tampa’s window. They did 24 year old get J.J. Moser in the deal, who fits the age profile for that next cohort but he’s not as impactful as Sergachev. They also added 20 year old Conor Geekie in the deal, who is a promising young forward. But what if the Lightning had taken a more unconventional approach and traded Hedman (pre-extension) instead? Could they have gotten a similar return and kept Sergachev?
The big money moves the Lightning made also made it impossible for them to extend Steven Stamkos. The former Lightning captain signed an extension with the Nashville Predators, who were likely thanking the Lightning for the cap space as they signed the deal (remember that McDonagh trade?). Guenzel is the obvious replacement for Stamkos and is a few years younger, but losing Stamkos takes away from the gains made by adding Guenztel to the roster. Suddenly, this looks more like a set of moves that are designed to tread water rather than truly upgrade the roster.
Looking Ahead
The Lightning are on the brink. Cracks in the roster are showing and they seem to be inclined to bail water rather than repair the boat. Their moves this summer seemed designed with very short term thinking in mind to try to get one more year out of the roster rather than take a more unconventional approach to try to bolt on a 5-10 year extension to their contention window. The playoffs do not look like a lock next season. The Bolts are 6th in the Atlantic in the current model projection, behind both the Sabres and Senators.
The long term outlook is looking even less rosy. The Lightning are up to the cap for 24/25 with a large contingent of players signed to long term deals. Many of those players are in their prime or later, so moving them may be difficult with long cap commitments attached. They’ve also already traded away their 2025 1st and 3rd round picks and have a thin prospect pool and we’ll likely see more picks dealt at the deadline if they are in the playoff race.
