It’s like déjà vu all over again. The Toronto Maple Leafs. The first round. Another early playoff exit. Will the next 12 months play out differently or are we gearing up for yet another re-run?
Roster Ruminations
NHL Roster
The Maple Leafs have been one of the NHLs best regular season teams over the past number of seasons but that success has yet to translate to the playoffs. Head Coach Sheldon Keefe paid the price for that yesterday, as he was fired before his two year extension even kicked in. But is it enough to pull the Leafs out of their playoff rut? The model projection for next season has the Leafs predicted to be one of the top team in the league once again. Can a new coach push this team to the next level when it matters most?
Salary Cap Management
Much has been made about the ‘core 4’ in Toronto since Kyle Dubas assembled the group. Dubas is gone, though, and the core group remains intact. That was last summer. This summer, it’s the coach (so far). Will there be a shakeup to the top end of the roster as well? Mitch Marner and John Tavares each have one season remaining on their current deals. Both have no movement clauses. The Leafs have plenty of long term cap flexibility at the moment with just Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Morgan Rielly signed long term. Can they find an attractive trade package for Marner or Tarvares this summer and convince them to waive their NMC? Or will this group get yet another crack with a new coach?
Future Assets
The Maple Leafs have cap flexibility. What they don’t have is future assets. Hockey Prospecting ranks the Leafs prospect pool 17th in the NHL but it consists almost entirely of low ceiling prospects that are unlikely to become stars. They also have only 14 picks in the next 3 drafts and that includes only 4 picks in the first four rounds. Their draft capital over those 3 drafts is the lowest in the NHL.
What’s Next?
Fans are clamoring for changes to the ‘core 4’. If the Maple Leafs decide to go down that path, Tavares and Marner are the obvious targets to move out with only one year left on their deals. If Brad Treliving has no intention of extending them, perhaps he can get something for them on the trade market instead. Both are still capable top six forwards and Marner is still in his prime. There should be interest in them if they were made available, particularly Marner. But what might the Leafs target in return?
With Auston Matthews in his prime and a hollowed out prospect cupboard, the obvious direction is to try to continue to build around Matthews and Nylander. The prospect pool needs some serious restocking, but trading Marner and/or Tavares for a futures package might just be throwing in the towel on the Matthews contention window. Morgan Rielly and Jake McCabe top the depth chart as far as Leafs defensemen under contract next season. Rielly is capable on the top pair, then it’s a big step down to McCabe. The D corps needs some serious attention. Puck moving defensemen that can help the Leafs transition the puck to their forwards should be high on the list of wants.
The Leafs forward depth could also receive some attention. The team has tinkered around the edges endlessly through the Matthews era and, quick frankly, players like David Kampf and Calle Jarnkrok aren’t cutting it. The Leafs have relied heavily on the ‘core 4’ for offense and when matchups become a bigger focus in the postseason, their bottom six needs to be capable of chipping in. They need at least 3 lines that the opposing team needs to be concerned about come playoff time. Right now, playoff opponents can count the players they need to game plan against on one hand
Perhaps the coaching change will push the Maple Leafs to be a better playoff team. There’s also a distinct possibility that the roster contains enough flaws that top teams are able to exploit that it won’t matter.
