After missing the playoffs in 2022-2023, the regular season was a great success for the Winnipeg Jets this season. Things came to a sudden stop against the Colorado Avalanche in the first round though. Are the Jets back?
Roster Ruminations
NHL Roster
After their disappointing 2022-2023 season, there were plenty of rumors swirling that the Jets might disrupt their core. They bought out Blake Wheeler and traded Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Kings before signing Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele to long term extensions. The results followed this season but they still have work to do to become a true contender. The model projection for next season sees them as slightly above average, which is likely to get them back to the postseason next spring but it may be with a likely result like this year’s five game exit.
Salary Cap Management
The Hellebuyck and Scheifele extensions underpin the Jets’ overall cap situation. Josh Morrissey and Nino Neiderreiter are also locked up medium term but otherwise, the Jets have some flexibility on how they’ll set their core for the next while. While they have long term flexibility, the short term might force their hand to some degree with less than 20% of next year’s cap space to fill out and upgrade their NHL roster. They don’t have much in way of high profile RFAs, but they will need to replace departing UFAs that include Brendan Dillon, Dillon DeMelo, Colin Smith, Tyler Toffoli and Sean Monahan.
Future Assets
The Jets prospect pipeline isn’t exactly bursting at the seams. Hockey Prospecting ranks the Jets prospect pool 22nd in the NHL. Rutger McGroarty is an exciting prospect but the star potential fades quickly after that. They also have only 16 picks in the next three drafts, with a draft success probability below baseline.
What’s Next?
The Scheifele and Hellebuyck extensions kick in next season and it’s clear the front office sees them as the veteran anchors for their next contention window. With both now into their 30s, it’s an interesting bet. Hellebuyck is arguably the best goalie in the world and was a massive part of the Jets success this season. Scheifele’s impact entertains more debate. He’s a capable top six player, but his projected numbers suggest he would be better in a support role rather than driving the bus.
In fact, a large portion of the Jets NHL roster is now late prime or older. Players like Kyle Connor (27), Nikolaj Ehlers (28) and Neal Pionk (28) are at the younger end of their current focus cohort. Age effects are going to take their toll if the Jets try to maintain status quo with this core. They may get a few bounce back seasons, but this group is going to start declining as a group. The Jets probably need to add just to tread water for the next few seasons given the age profile of their current group. Trading a few of these players to get younger might be the best path forward if the goal is to remain competitive.
There are a few younger players that will help balance out the collective aging effects from the group discussed above. Gabe Vilardi arrived in the Dubois trade with the Kings and he had a standout season. Jets draft pick Cole Perfetti has put up solid numbers when he’s been in the lineup, although the coaching staff seemed hesitant to keep him in the lineup.
If the Jets hope to stay relevant in the Central Division, they’ll have to find a way to overcome the collective age decline that’s about to set in with their current roster. That won’t be easy with a depleted prospect pipeline.
