Team: Ottawa Senators
Team Building Status: Rebuilding
The Ottawa Senators are deep into a rebuild, with the initiating teardown now over five years in the rearview mirror. Despite what now seems like an annual tradition that the Senators rebuild is declared over, they have yet to to make a postseason appearance since the teardown started in 2017. Has the rebuild failed or does it just need more time to percolate? The Senators have a new owner and a new GM. Should they stay the course or set the team in a different direction?
Roster Ruminations
NHL Roster
The Senators’ yearly cycle is starting to feel like groundhog day at this point. Every summer, they make the additions that are supposed to bring them back into the playoffs. And every winter, they fail to end up playing meaningful games down the stretch. The 2023-2024 season has been no different.
The Senators big offseason trade last summer saw them deal RFA Alex DeBrincat to the Detroit Red Wings after it became clear that he didn’t intend to stay for the long term. They received Dominik Kubalik, Donovan Sebrango, Detroit’s 2024 4th round pick and a conditional 2024 1st round pick. It certainly didn’t do much for their current roster but the return did provide another injection of future potential.
The Senators signed Vladimir Tarasenko to a one year deal, no doubt thinking he would fill the void created by DeBrincat’s departure. They also extended a number of young defensemen, including Jake Sanderson, Jacob Bernard-Docker, and Erik Brannstrom. Sanderson signed an eight year deal and was clearly thought to be part of their long term plans.
With little outside help brought in over the summer, internal growth was required for the Senators to take a step forward. It hasn’t panned out this year though, and the Sens sit in a pitched battle with the Canadiens for last place in the Atlantic Division.
Looking ahead to the 2024-2025 season, the Senators team profile looks encouraging. Part of that is due to the fact that UFAs have been stripped from all rosters at this stage and the Senators most notable UFA is Kubalik. They’ll likely drop in the league comparisons as other team fill holes created by departing free agents while the Sens will have much the same group returning next season. Looking at the projected shot and corsi rates gives more reason for optimism though. All three of the 5v5 possession stats projected on the team card show a team that is expected to be at or above 50% share.
Salary Cap Management
The Senators have committed to their current group of core players for the long haul. Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris, Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot are signed long term and the Senators will have to manufacture a blockbuster trade if they want to make big changes to their core group. There’s still room to tinker but, with Shane Pinto and Erik Brannstrom among their RFAs, it will have to be around the edges if they don’t move out salary in another move.
Future Assets
The Senators’ prospect pool has dwindled as they’ve tried to pull their rebuild back into playoff contention. Hockey Prospecting ranks Ottawa with the 21st prospect pool in the NHL. Outside of the younger players already in the NHL, there really aren’t any exciting prospects in their system. Reinforcements aren’t coming from within their system, at least in a significant way. Their draft pick pool is in better shape, sitting slightly above baseline for the next 3 drafts.
What’s Next?
The Senators rebuild hasn’t been able to gain traction towards the playoffs, but there are some good pieces in place. The rebuild has produced a cohort that is age 21-24, which looks like the logical place to focus future roster building effort.
| Centers | Wingers | Defensemen | Wingers |
| Tim Stutzle | Brady Tkachuk | Jake Sanderson | Mads Sogaard |
| Ridly Greig | Josh Norris | Erik Brannstrom | |
| Shane Pinto | Jacob Bernard-Docker |
There are some really good pieces in this cohort. Tim Stutzle is blossoming into a very good player and he’s still only 22. Jake Sanderson is only 21 and he’s arguably been the Senators best defenseman this season. Brady Tkachuk has a big impact and has already been named captain. All three are locked up on long term deals that will take them well into their prime. Ridly Grieg has had an outstanding rookie campaign. The biggest problem with this cohort is it simply is not deep enough. It’s short a couple of forwards and the defense group is probably not good enough without an upgrade.
The Senators need to add to their rebuild cohort but their thin prospect pool means they don’t have future assets to use as trade chips. They should also be trying to accumulate draft picks from 2025 and on to build their next cohort so that the rebuild doesn’t fizzle out after a brief whiff of the postseason. That means their only sizable trade chips are the players on their roster. Jakob Chychrun and Drake Batherson are in their early prime and they should garner a interest from contenders that may be willing to send significant trade packages in return. They are the best chance to land an impact player in the cohort age range that can level up their incoming group.
Anyone over the age of 24 should be available. Thomas Chabot may be a useful elder statesman to mentor the kids but he may also be able to bring in a big haul on the trade market. The Senators need to get creative to add some juice to their rebuild to stop if from falling flat. Everything should be on the table for their veterans. Even Claude Giroux, who does have a NMC and seemed to have gone home to Ottawa to round out his career, should be considered for a potential move. Maybe he’ll say no. Or maybe he’d like one more shot at a Stanley Cup.
If the Senators take this approach, they could bolster their rebuild cohort that is just starting to hit early prime. Over the next 3-4 years, that group will continue to grow and, if they Sens play their cards right, could be looking to be back in the conversation as a contender.
