The Montreal Canadiens traded Sean Monahan to the Winnipeg Jets on Friday. In exchange, they received a 2024 1st Round Pick and a 2027 conditional 3rd Round Pick. Let’s unpack the deal from both teams’ perspectives.
As I did yesterday with the Elias Lindholm trade, I’m not going to assign grades for this trade. I want to maintain focus on the larger teambuilding picture and avoid focusing too narrowly on this trade. I recently shared some thoughts on team building strategies in a series of posts, and we’ll consider how the move fits with these strategies.
- Perpetual Mediocrity: ‘Just Get In’
- Designed to Fail: The Rebuild
- A Better Way: Regenerative Cohorts
The Trade
Winnipeg Jets Acquire:
- Sean Monahan
Montreal Canadiens Acquire:
- 2024 1st Round Pick (WPG)
- 2027 3rd Round Pick (WPG) *Conditional
The Pieces
Sean Monahan
Monahan is a 29 year old center, playing out a 1 year deal with a $1.985MM cap hit. He’s a 3-time 30 goal scorer, however injuries have taken their toll. Following surgeries on each hip over two consecutive offseasons, he seems to have found his groove offensively in Montreal. His defensive impact has not been stellar though.
Draft Picks
The Canadiens receive the Jets’ 2024 first round pick. With the Jets currently in the race for the the Central Division title, it’s likely that pick will come late in the first round.
The Canadiens will also receive the Jets’ 2027 3rd Round Pick if the Jets win the 2024 Stanley Cup.
The Outlook
Winnipeg Jets
Last summer, the Jets were rumored to be considering big changes to their roster. Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele were rumored to be on the block. In the end, the Jets decided to extend both with long term deals and they shuffled the deck by jettisoning Blake Wheeler and Pierre-Luc Dubois.
A half season later, their direction is paying off as they sit neck-and-neck with the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars in the race for the Central Division’s top seed. With the trade deadline approaching, they identified a need at center and made their acquisition well ahead of time.
The addition of Sean Monahan doesn’t really move the needle on their overall team strength in the model. Generally, a the addition of single middle roster player doesn’t. It does, however, add another NHL roster player to the Jets organization in an area of need. With Gabe Vilardi playing on the wing, Adam Lowry has been the Jets 2C and he is not known for his offensive prowess. Monahan gives them another weapon they can use on the powerplay. The additional depth also adds some injury resilience to the roster for the war of attrition that is the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
The cost was enormous. That’s the part of the deal I don’t like from the Jets perspective. Their current roster is in Late Prime and there isn’t much building behind it. If we followed the Regenerative Cohort teambuilding strategy, we’d like to see a wave of players in the Developing age group pushing into the NHL roster by this point. There are a couple, but it’s more of a ripple than a wave. And behind that, there’s a dwindling pile of draft picks that is now below baseline success probability. The Jets need to win now because the long term outlook is bleak.
Montreal Canadiens
The Canadiens made out like bandits in this deal, even more so when we recall that they acquired Monahan from the Calgary Flames two summers ago in a cap dump and also acquired a 1st round pick in that deal. Two first round picks in the door and a year and a half of productive hockey from Monahan for a team actively rebuilding. Not bad.
This deal is obviously all about the draft picks from the Montreal perspective. They have no need for a 29 year old forward in their long term outlook. They’re building around a group that is in the Developing bracket, inching into early prime right now, and it’s probably the next wave of prospects that will push them back into contention. They’re up to 30 draft picks in the next 3 drafts after this trade, including five first rounders. They’re doing a fine job of accumulating pick potential. Now, it will be up to the scouting and development staff to make good with it.
