We’re at the midway point of the 23/24 season. Let’s take a look at where things stand in the Central Division.
Preseason Projections
We’ll start with a look back at the Central Division season opening projections. The Avalanche were the favorites in the model going into the season. The Stars, Jets, and Wild looked like the most likely contenders for the other two divisional playoff seeds with the third team a likely wild card contender. The Predators and Coyotes were projected to be chasing the wild card spots, close enough to have a shot at sneaking into the postseason. The Blues looked like a longshot for the postseason, while the Blackhawks were predicted to take up residence in the division basement.
Mid-Season Status
The Central Division has played out much as the model predicted through the first half of the season, although there are a few surprises. Let’s look through the current standings.
#1 Winnipeg Jets (60 pts – 0.714 P%): One point back of the Canucks for the overall NHL lead, the Jets actually have the higher point percentage. Connor Hellebuyck has been the catalyst for their success, while Laurent Brossoit is also having a strong season. Strong goaltending has masked some otherwise average team metrics so far, such as a 5v5 xG share just over 50% and a PK that is giving up more than their PP is generating.
#2 Colorado Avalanche (59 pts, 0.686 P%): The preseason division favorite Avalanche sit just one point back of the Jets. Their 5v5 xG share looked better than Winnipeg’s in the first quarter of the season but has waned in the second quarter. Their special teams are flip flopped from the Jets’ number, with their PP outscoring their opposition’s.
#3 Dallas Stars (55 pts, 0.655 P%): The Stars round out the top 3, putting the three teams projected for divisional playoff spots in them, albeit in different order. The Stars have the best 5v5 xG share of the three, along with good special teams. Goaltending has been their biggest weakness at a team level so far, although Jake Oettinger has missed significant time with an injury.
#4 Nashville Predators (49 pts, 0.570 P%): The Predators opened the season looking like they could be in a position to chase a wild card spot and they’ve made good on that prediction so far. They sit in a wild card spot and have put up a positive 5v5 xG share and are breaking even on special teams. Finishing has been their biggest challenge so far.
#5 St Louis Blues (44 pts, 0.537 P%): The Blues have been better than projected at the start of the season. Rather than a wild card long shot, they’re right in the pack of challengers. That position looks tenuous though. Their 5v5 xG rates are not favorable and special teams are also struggling.
#6 Arizona Coyotes (44 pts – 0.537 P%): The Coyotes looked like they may not be the laughingstock of the Central this year (at least for the on-ice product) and they’ve made good on that opportunity. A 5v5 xG share just shy of 50% has kept them competitive and a strong season from Connor Ingram in net has helped keep them in the wild card race.
#7 Minnesota Wild (39 pts, 0.464 P%): Projected to be in the mix for a divisional playoff seed, the Wild’s season has not gone according to plan. A coaching change breathed life into the squad momentarily, but recent results see them on another slide. Goaltending has been a challenge, while their penalty kill has been an even bigger challenge. Injuries to some of their top players have taken their toll, with the Wild’s depth unable to take up the slack.
#8 Chicago Blackhawks (26 pts, 0.302 P%): The Blackhawks have Connor Bedard.
Mid Season Projections
The first half of the season has really only seen a few small surprises relative to the season opening projections and, for the most part, the model expects the teams to stay in their lanes the rest of the way. The Jets, Avs, and Stars are well positioned for the divisional playoff spots. The Predators lead the charge for wild card spots, with the Coyotes the most likely challenger from the Central Division. The Blues and Wild haven’t performed to their projected strength so far and they’re projected to swap positions by over the course of the second half. And then there’s the Blackhawks. There’s always next year.
