Who are the best goal scoring forwards in the NHL? With this being an analytics focused blog, we’ll need some criteria to back up the list with some data so let’s start by defining the criteria we’ll use for the ranking:
- The current player projections will be the base for our ranking. The player projections models use data from multiple seasons to tune out noise, which will give us a good foundation for the ranking. The models are also focused on the 5v5 game state, so unequal opportunities on special teams won’t skew our ranking. What we’re really looking at is which forwards are the most likely to be the best goal scorers at even strength over the next 82 regular season games.
- We’ll filter the full list of forwards to just those that are in the top quartile of predicted 5v5 TOI/GP. This essentially gives us only players that play the equivalent of first line minutes. These players perform in big minutes, generally against top competition. This is a simple way of filtering out players who perform well in depth roles, leaving us with a subset of only elite forwards.
- Finally, we’ll rank the remaining forwards from the previous step by predicted 5v5 G/60 to determine the most efficient 5v5 goal scorers within the smaller set of heavily utilized forwards from the previous step.
Here are the top 10 most efficient 5v5 goal scoring forwards:
#10 – Jordan Kyrou
Jordan Kyrou is in his early prime and will be looked to increasingly as a key player on an aging St Louis Blues team. He’s scoring at a slightly lower rate than projected so far this season, due mainly to his lowest 5v5 SH% since his 16 game inaugural NHL season.
#9 – Jack Hughes
Jack Hughes has erupted into one of the NHL’s most dangerous players over the past couple of seasons. He does it all, including putting the puck in the net. Like Kyrou, his current scoring rate is below his projection and his 5v5 SH% is the lowest since his rookie campaign.
#8 – Brady Tkachuk
Brady Tkachuk is #8 on the list, and is the first to currently be outperforming his projected 5v5 goal rate. The Senators have struggled to meet expectations this season, but Tkachuk’s ability to put the puck in the net has certainly not been holding them back.
#7 – Carter Verhaeghe
Carter Verhaeghe comes in at #7. Offered a bigger role when he moved to Sunrise, he’s earned full marks with his opportunity. He’s outperforming the model projection for 5v5 G/60 despite the lowest 5v5 SH% of his career.
#6 – Nikolaj Ehlers
Nik Ehlers has been among the best, if not the best, Jets forward for a long time. He’s been elevated to the top line of late and the counting stats are finally piling up.
#5 – Nathan MacKinnon
Into the top 5. Nathan MacKinnon is as dangerous as they come. His 5v5 shot rate is down a bit this season, but a career best 5v5 SH% sees him outperforming the 5v5 G/60 model projection regardless.
#4 – Tage Thompson
Tage Thompson burst onto the scene a couple of seasons ago. At this point, he looks like the real deal and he’s outperforming his projected 5v5 goal rate despite the lowest 5v5 SH% since his breakout season in 21/22.
#3 – Filip Forsberg
Filip Forsberg lands at #3 on this list of the best goal scoring forwards and he is the top forward in the Western Conference on the list. His 5v5 shot rate is up this season and it’s showing in his goal scoring frequency.
#2 – David Pastrnak
David Pastnak continues to put the puck in the net after the departure of the Bruins top 2 centers last summer.
#1 – Auston Matthews
Auston Matthews is the #1 goal scoring forward by the criteria we set out at the outset, with the the highest predicted 5v5 goal rate. His actual performance has been even better in that regard this season and nothing jumps out that suggests it won’t continue.
