The NHL’s coaching carousel claimed it’s second victim of the 2023/2024 season on Monday as the Minnesota Wild relieved Dean Evason of his head coaching duties and replaced him with John Hynes. A disappointing start to the season saw the Wild sitting 7th in the Central Division, just 2 points ahead of the Chicago Blackhawks, at the time of the coaching change. Evason took the fall, but the Wild’s slow start his doing?
Evason spent parts of 5 seasons as the Wild’s head coach, so let’s start by going back to last season to get a suitably large sample size of the team’s performance under his watch. The Wild were an okay 5v5 team in 22-23, treading water in 5v5 expected goal share all season. Their finishing was a bit suspect but their goaltending more than made up for it, particularly later in the season. Special teams were a slight boon as well, with the powerplay production outpacing what they gave up on the penalty kill by a small margin.
Fast forward back to the 23-24 season, where we find a roster that looks very similar to the one we saw in 22-23. Matt Dumba departed in the offseason and was replaced in the lineup by rookie Brock Faber. Aside from Dumba, however, the core remains in tact.
The Wild stumbled out of the gate this season, putting up some pretty awful 5v5 xG numbers through the first couple of weeks. They seem to have recovered, though, and have trended back to where they spent all of last season: at break even in 5v5 xG share. The big difference from last season at this point is the finishing and goaltending. It’s a complete reversal, with finishing quite strong and goaltending struggling just a bit more.
What may be more concerning is the Wild’s special teams. Their powerplay has been generating less than it did last season, while the penalty kill has been atrocious. The result is a special teams gap that is digging the Wild a hole on a nightly basis.
Looking at some of the Wild’s key players helps validate the fact that the Wild’s 5v5 performance has come much as expected this season. Jonas Brodin has anchored the blueline through the early part of the season with Jared Spurgeon missing time with an injury and has outperformed the model projections in the process. Brock Faber has stepped into the hole vacated by Matt Dumba and has fit in seamlessly. Kirill Kaprisov and Matt Boldy have taken some heat for not producing offensively, yet their 5v5 performance is reasonably inline with the model projections.
The evidence suggests that coaching may have been a factor in the Wild’s early season struggles this season. Special teams, particularly the penalty kill, and the poor 5v5 xG% out of the gate seem like the biggest red flags.
It’s certainly not entirely on the coach, though. There are other issues at play. Goaltending can be famously fickle and the big swing in goaltending performance from last season to this season suggests that there’s more going on in the crease. And the Wild are working with a huge, self-inflicted handicap on the cap. With nearly $15M in dead cap on the books this season and next, GM Bill Guerin has put together a respectable squad with the resources available but it’s a tall task to build a contender working with 80% of the resources of your competitors.
