State of the Yzerplan: July 2023

Back in March, I looked at the state of the Red Wings and the Yzerplan. You can find the original 3 part series here:

• Part 1: State of the Red Wings
• Part 2: Defense and Goaltending
• Part 3: Forwards

Through that original series, I put together a set of hypothetical moves designed to bring the Red Wings back to contender status. In this post, we’ll take a look at the moves that Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman actually completed this summer and see how they fit with the original game plan.

To take a look at the full game plan I outlined for the Red Wings in March, follow the links above to the original series. As a quick recap, the end result was a prospective lineup as shown below going into the 25/26 season.

2023 Offseason Moves

Game Plan: Graduate 2 LD prospects to the NHL level. Pencil one in the top four and one in the bottom pair. The Wings get two skaters on high value deals added to the roster in the short term and the hope is that the top four skater hits star status and can eventually rise to the top pair.

What they did – 2023 Offseason: This one will have to wait. The Wings added enough veteran NHL defensemen this offseason that it looks unlikely any of their prospects will crack the opening night roster as a full time contributor. That doesn’t mean they’ve failed here though, they may simply be giving their prospects some additional time to percolate in the AHL before they graduate to the NHL.

Game Plan: While the other moves take shape, fill the roster openings on defense with high value, short term contracts. The intent is to find capable players, but not clog up the bottom of the roster with long term deals.

What they did – 2023 Offseason: The Red Wings were busy in free agency, signing three NHL defensemen on 1-way contracts. Term was kept short with Shayne Gostisbehere and Gustav Lindstrom getting 1 year deals, while Justin Holl was signed for 3 years. That leaves the door open to these being stop gap deals to buy time for their prospects to develop, while also bolstering the blueline enough to help challenge for a playoff spot in the upcoming season.

Game Plan: Graduate a goaltending prospect to serve as backup to Ville Husso, with the intent to have him take over as starter at the end of Husso’s current deal. Consider extending Husso depending on development of prospects and moving to a 1A/1B tandem with Husso and a current prospect.

What they did – 2023 Offseason: The Wings signed a couple of depth NHL goaltenders in free agency, adding James Reimer and Alex Lyon. This has much the same look as the defense, with Reimer and Lyon giving the Wings some decent NHL depth in goal and biding time for Sebastian Cossa to develop in the minors.

Game Plan: Land a high impact free agent forward during the 2023 offseason. Michael Bunting is an interesting target that profiles very well in the model and could easily be a cap casualty for the Maple Leafs.

What they did – 2023 Offseason: It wasn’t Michael Bunting, but the Red Wings did add a capable top six forward through free agency. J.T. Compher profiles as a capable second line forward in the model and should help stabilize the top half of the lineup with his strong defensive impact. In a thin UFA class, this was a quality addition. With a 5y x $5.1M deal, Compher will be an important piece as the Red Wings look to take the next step.

Game Plan: While the other moves take shape, fill the roster openings at forward with high value, short term contracts. The intent is to find capable players, but not clog up the bottom of the roster with long term deals.

What they did – 2023 Offseason: Like the defense, Detroit was busy on the free agent market. Outside of Compher, though, it was a number of short term deals. Klim Kostin signed for 2 years while Christian Fischer and Daniel Sprong signed for 1 year each. Sprong might be the most intriguing of the bunch, as he’s consistently put up very strong 5v5 goal rates in limited roles over the past few seasons.

Game Plan: Keep an eye out for potential trade opportunities and take advantage of a strong cap sheet and prospect pipeline to act. If there is an opportunity to consolidate future assets into a higher impact player, take it. Top line impact forwards, particularly centers, are of particular interest.

What they did – 2023 Offseason: When rumors began to surface that Alex DeBrincat would not sign a long term extension in Ottawa, Detroit quickly floated up as one of the prime destinations. Detroit consolidated assets and upgraded on the wings, sending Dominik Kubalik to Ottawa along with a futures package that included a conditional 1st Round pick in exchange for DeBrincat before signing DeBrincat to a long term extension. While DeBrincat looks like only a middle six forward in the model, his offensive contribution is strong and the Wings should be able to find value by putting him in an appropriate role

2023-2024 Projected Roster

There’s still plenty of work to do before the Red Wings will be considered a contender. The 2023 offseason was a step in the right direction. They added a top six forward, shored up their defense corps and filled in the gaps with short term contracts. Based on current rosters, the Wings are projected to finish 3rd in the Atlantic in the model, so they look ready to take a step forward and play meaningful games late into the season.

Adjusting the Game Plan

The Red Wings moves this summer came reasonably close to the game plan I outlined in March. Updating the prospective roster for the 25/26 season based on their actual transactions to date, here’s what they may be able to achieve over the next couple of seasons:

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